#BTC能否守住6.5万美元？

On June 14, U.S. President Trump announced on social media that the U.S.-Iran agreement is “now complete,” authorizing the “free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. Navy’s maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz subsequently confirmed that both sides had reached a peace agreement, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi also confirmed that the text of the memorandum of understanding had been finalized.

However, market trust in the authenticity of the agreement is not uniform. Just as Trump’s tweet ignited the market, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson had at one point publicly denied that the memorandum would be signed on the 14th, creating confusion over “the same message, two versions”—with the market ultimately choosing to believe Trump. This selective trust is itself a warning sign: the market’s desire for a peace narrative is overpowering a calm, factual assessment, and the foundation for the rebound was fragile from the very beginning.

Judging by market performance, Bitcoin rebounded more than 9% from a low of roughly $59,000, briefly rising as high as $65,923 before slipping slightly back to around $65,000. Ethereum also moved higher in parallel, with more than 90,000 liquidations across the entire network within 24 hours. However, after Bitcoin touched the highs, the market clearly shifted into a wait-and-see mode—short-term momentum chasing gains gradually ran out, and the bulls need to find new supporting logic over the next few trading days.

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Technical analysis: The key level is $67,000, but no confirmation signals have appeared yet

From a technical structure perspective, before the news was released, Bitcoin had been trapped below a bearish triangle resistance line. Although it broke out of that pattern, confirmation signals have not yet been effectively validated. The critical level clusters around $67,000—this level reflects the combined influence of multiple technical factors, including trading volume and moving averages.

Bitcoin is currently only about $2,000 away from this key threshold, but the $68,000 to $70,000 area is seen as a more important resistance zone. Breaking through it would require more than short-term optimism brought by the peace agreement. To sustain the rally, there also needs to be tangible support such as falling inflation data, the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals, or continued inflows of institutional capital.

In the short term, if the agreement is signed smoothly and the strait opens as planned, Bitcoin may attempt to push toward $67,000; conversely, if the agreement changes course or oil prices rebound, the risk of retesting the $64,500 support area cannot be ignored.

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Flows and positioning: The bulls’ logic is intact, but long positioning is already clearly too crowded

The bullish logic chain—geopolitical risk easing → oil prices falling → cooling inflation expectations → reduced pressure for Fed rate hikes → improved expectations for liquidity → a broad rebound in risk assets—is complete and intuitive, serving as the core basis for the market’s short-term bullish outlook. Standard Chartered Bank also explicitly ranked it as the top of its three main bullish rationales, believing that geopolitical easing will improve the macro environment for crypto assets.

However, risks are building up.

First, Bitcoin has rebounded by nearly $4,000 from Thursday’s low, and there is already clear technical overextension in the short term. A rebound that happens too fast means that if the market’s expectations for subsequent progress come up short, the pace of the pullback could be just as rapid.

Second, the market’s long positioning is already quite high. Some market participants have bluntly described it as a “global asset celebration”—oil prices collapsing, gold breaking through $4,300, the Nikkei hitting its first new high above 69,000, and South Korea’s stock market triggering circuit breakers for the 6th consecutive day. In a near one-sided setup like this, the lack of an opposing side means that after momentum fades, any pullback may lack sufficient support, which would increase the magnitude of market volatility.

Third, there is substantial disagreement among assessments of the bottom coming from different institutions. Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin has already bottomed at around $59,000, with a year-end target of $100,000; while Galaxy Digital poured cold water—by evaluating the current situation using 13 historical bottom indicators, it said only 4 have been triggered so far, the benchmark bottom range is $40,000 to $46,000, and in an extreme case it could drop to $30,000 to $37,000. This divergence itself directly reflects the market’s elevated uncertainty.

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Macro-linked assets release complicated signals

Oil: The WTI crude oil drop at one point widened to 5%, and Brent fell below $84—this was the most direct and pure reaction to the peace agreement. But professionals point out that because oil-export infrastructure may have been damaged during the conflict, a full restoration of supply may still take several months. After the sharp plunge in the short term, the actual pace of supply recovery will determine the direction of subsequent pricing, not just news sentiment.

Gold: Gold broke above $4,300, rising more than 2%, forming an intriguing divergence with the oil price rout. The two’s fundamental logic differs in this way: oil is driven by the supply side, and opening the strait implies that supply constraints are removed; while gold is driven by real interest rates, and the decline in inflation expectations caused by the fall in oil prices reduces the urgency of rate hikes, which is bullish for gold. But this also means that market expectations for “inflation falling” may be moving ahead of actual data.

A more noteworthy signal is this: the price of “big bitcoin” has already touched $65,923, gold has broken above $4,300, and oil prices have plunged 4%, mainly because of the repricing of liquidity expectations. The market has already priced in the complete transmission chain—“peace → oil prices down → inflation down → the Fed turns dovish”—into asset prices all at once. Once this “front-running” runs into friction at the execution stage, the size of any downside correction could be quite significant.

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Factors of suppression that should not be ignored

First, Israel is the biggest blind spot in the agreement. The parties signing the ceasefire agreement are the U.S. and Iran, but Israel—the largest military actor in the Middle East—is not bound by the agreement. A few hours before the U.S.-Iran deal, Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon. According to U.S. media reports, Trump was extremely angry, and he immediately lashed out with profanity to criticize Netanyahu as “completely lacking judgment.” Israeli media generally described the U.S.-Iran agreement as “a failure” and “a disaster,” arguing that the preliminary agreement did not adequately consider Israel’s interests. If Israel continues striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s response pathway could become completely uncontrollable.

Second, the agreement is only a framework, and the execution details have not yet been aligned. The U.S. argues for free passage through the strait, while Iran tends to charge a regulatory fee. Before the concepts are aligned on who pays and who ensures safe passage, the questions remain unresolved. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi has made it clear that the starting prerequisite for the 60-day negotiations is that the U.S. must fulfill its commitments to end hostilities, lift the blockade, and unfreeze assets—yet the U.S. and Iran have clear differences over the timeline for unfreezing funds. If either side backtracks, the 60-day negotiation window may break down even before it officially begins.

Third, structural issues on the demand side have not been resolved. Strategy disclosed that in early June it sold 32 Bitcoin to pay dividends, which to some extent undermines market confidence in the narrative of “long-term holders never selling.” At the same time, Bitcoin ETF inflows have continued to show net outflows, and institutional demand has not fully recovered. If institutional funds can’t keep up, the typical market pattern is “macro bullish gap-up, followed by consolidation or a pullback.”

Fourth, a Federal Reserve meeting is right around the corner. This week’s market focus will shift to the Fed’s policy decision, which Waller will host as chair for the first time. The market expects monetary policy may move from easing to neutral, or even more hawkish. If a hawkish surprise occurs, it will become a main downside risk for cryptocurrencies.

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Core conclusion

The core driver behind the current Bitcoin rebound is not an improvement in fundamentals, but the early repricing of expectations for easier liquidity. The near-term logic holds, and the rebound has technical room to continue—if the signing ceremony on the 19th proceeds smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz opens as planned, Bitcoin could test the key $67,000 level. AI-simulated market repair paths also indicate that under a baseline scenario, Bitcoin could complete repairs in the $72,000 to $78,000 range, but the prerequisite is that geopolitical risks are materially alleviated and institutional capital returns.

However, the risks in the current market should not be underestimated:

· Long positioning is already significantly too crowded. In a one-sided betting setup, without an opposing side, the speed of any pullback after momentum exhaustion could be very fast;
· Israel’s blind spot has not been resolved and could become a variable that detonates at any time;
· Execution-stage uncertainties—such as the asset unfreezing timeline, the strait passage rules, and the prerequisites for the 60-day negotiations—if any link gets stuck, it could reverse market sentiment;
· The Fed’s policy direction is the bigger macro variable. Whether the “inflation cooling” expectations from the peace agreement are overly optimistic still needs validation from data.

The rebound’s foundation is fragile. What drives it is the overlay of sentiment and liquidity expectations—not a genuine, substantive improvement in fundamentals. The real test will arrive in the first few weeks after the agreement is implemented.