June 15, Monday SPCX Afternoon Strategy

SPCX, as a newly listed giant stock on NASDAQ and the largest IPO in global history, is currently in a critical phase of digesting post-listing sentiment and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The IPO price was set at $135 on the first day of listing, opening at $150, surging to a high before pulling back, and finally closing at $160.95, with a daily increase of 19.22%. The intraday high reached $176.52, and the low dipped to $149.34. After-hours trading saw a slight rise to around $166. The total market capitalization at close broke through $2.1 trillion, placing it among the top global listed companies.
From the market flow perspective, the first-day trading volume reached ten times the normal daily level. After massive turnover, the market shifted from initial frantic chasing to a gradual slowdown and observation phase. This IPO only released about 4% of the total shares as tradable stock, with Musk, the founding team, and employees' holdings all locked up. Coupled with the underwriters' 30-day green shoe stabilization mechanism, the $135 IPO price has become a core support level that is difficult to break in the short term, serving as the ultimate support point for this round of rally. The key support zones in the near term are $150 and $155, where chips are concentrated. The first resistance level is at the first-day high of $176.5; a breakout above this could open the upward space toward $185.
On the fundamental side, the bullish and bearish opinions are quite distinct. Optimistic funds bet on the long-term growth potential of the three core sectors: Starlink satellite internet, space computing power, and xAI artificial intelligence. They believe the company, with its exclusive space launch technology, can tap into a trillion-dollar blue ocean market. However, the downside risks are also prominent. The company remains in a loss state for 2025, with an extremely high price-to-sales ratio close to 109, far exceeding traditional aerospace valuation levels. Multiple investment banks have vastly different target price ranges, from as low as $63 to as high as $190. Future stock prices are likely to fluctuate significantly under valuation recovery expectations.
In the short term, the trend is likely to oscillate within the $150–$176 range, waiting for market sentiment to cool and valuations to return to rationality. Holders can consider taking partial profits near resistance levels. For those entering the market, high-position chasing is not recommended; patience is advised to wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering a position. Trading suggestion: watch around $175, with a $BTC target of $160.