pre mkt thoughts 15 Jun 26

Before i get started with the note - let me just do a quick recap - the week before, i called for caution and highlighted the cheap cost in hedging downside. Almost immediately the market lurched sharply downwards. Last Tuesday i then called for a bottoming in what i themed as a technical driven sell off and for a move to ATHs - we are broadly up 10% or more in many names since then.
First off - i am not a fortune teller. While i may have gotten it right this time, i would tell you that i have also been wrong many times. However, what i keep highlighting is - keep your losses low and your payoff ratios high... nobody can always be right - the market is too chaotic for predictions.
Moving on, yields are broadly 6bps lower across 10y and 30y as we subside on lowering energy costs and expected inflation. Asian markets reacted strongly to a possible deal with both NKY and KOSPI up almost 5%. HSTECH was up ~1%. With the Iran deal, i highlighted this before in a note last week but this is possibly the start of China tech rerating and the opening of a move for $BABA to 190s.
Memory performed strongly with 285A surging 10%, $MU and $SNDK are up 5% in thin overnight markets with SK Hynix up 7% as well. I mentioned before about NAND prices - this should continue to support both 285A and SNDK. Both 285A and $SKHYNIX will have a US ADR soon, i would expect these 2 names to continue to perform.
Post the anthropic news on the weekend, Neoclouds are coming into the sector. Last week, i also have been banging the table about the neocloud trade - $NBIS in pre market trading is leading the pack being up 7% - again i would caution against using pre mkt prices given that it is mostly retail driven. However, last week, instis derisked at one of the fastest rates - i would expect them to add back risk - making for a SPECTACULAR 2nd half of june performance for risk assets in general. IMO - given that the sovereign buildout thesis is now coming into focus - this means duplication in buildouts and we get FAR MORE demand for semis and neos.
$NBIS has the fundamentals and more importantly has the main character (leopold) motion at this point. Smarter readers than me will also know that $NBIS has the most exposure to spot compute prices - allowing them to monetise on a market that is short compute. Their financing structure is also geared more towards equity, hence derisking the company. $IREN utilises a heavy ATM program - that imo suppresses valuation and is not ideal.
Themes that i am watching - memory, neoclouds, power
Good luck!