6.15 Monday Gold Midday Outlook

Today, gold experienced a sharp rebound from oversold levels, with London Gold Spot, Shanghai Gold, and Gold T+D all rising across the board. The recent rally was mainly driven by easing Middle East tensions, a sharp drop in oil prices lowering inflation expectations, and a retreat in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, boosting gold prices. Additionally, the previous significant decline in gold prices attracted bottom-fishing and short covering funds, and central banks' continued gold purchases also supported the bottom, but this is only a correction after the decline, not a trend reversal.
From a technical perspective, gold prices show short-term bearish divergence, and it is highly likely to fill the gap today, so chasing the rally is not advisable. The key resistance for international gold is at $4,380–$4,400, with support around $4,250; domestically, Shanghai Gold faces pressure at 945–950 yuan, with an important support at 920 yuan. The daily short-term structure remains bearish.
Next, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting in the early morning will determine the future direction of gold: dovish statements will boost gold to continue rebounding, while hawkish comments will end this round of rebound and return to a downtrend. In a neutral stance, gold will likely stay within a range with oscillations, so it is recommended to wait for the results and manage risk accordingly.
Trading suggestion: Watch for a rebound around 4,335, with a target of 4,300; if broken, $BTC look for 4,260.