6.15 Morning Analysis

BTC has recently surged to a new high of 65,650, but the upward momentum has shown clear cracks.

First, there is a divergence between volume and capital flow: as the price hits a new high, net capital outflows continue, indicating that major funds are cashing out at high levels on good news. The rally lacks additional capital support, and the pulse-driven market driven by sentiment cannot continue.

Second, the technical indicators have issued a clear top signal: after the price broke above the upper Bollinger Band, it entered a severely overbought zone, with strong resistance at the upper band. A short-term pullback is inevitable; meanwhile, the KDJ indicator's J line is at a high level, with a clear sign of a decline. Once a death cross occurs, it will drive the price to fall rapidly.

This round of rally was entirely catalyzed by news. Support below is concentrated near the middle Bollinger Band. If the price falls back and breaks below this level, the trend will revert to oscillating downward. Currently, chasing longs at high levels is extremely risky, and the downward pressure is building.

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