$XAUT #MyGateTradeStory

Gold reached $5,589 on January 28. Today it is trading between $4,195 and $4,222. That's about a 25% drop.
But the story of this drop is much more complex than most people think. And now that the agreement has been signed, the picture is changing significantly.
Let's go back first.
When the conflict began on February 28, gold was already around $4,900 and continuing its upward trend. The initial reaction was safe-haven buying. Oil surged. Inflation expectations climbed. It was priced in that central banks would not be able to cut interest rates. In this environment, the theory for gold was: high inflation, geopolitical risk, stable interest rates. All of these support gold.
But what happened was this: oil went from $100 to $110. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut completely disappeared. Goldman Sachs removed its 2026 interest rate cut scenarios from its model. The dollar strengthened. And as the dollar strengthened, reverse pressure was created on gold.
Gold doesn't pay interest. As real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. This mechanism was the main force that pulled gold down by $1,300 since the January 28 peak.
Now this mechanism is starting to reverse.
The Strait of Hormuz has opened. The agreement has been signed. Oil has already moved ahead of the news, falling from $92 to $88. This decline will accelerate. If energy costs fall, the energy component that pushed the May CPI to 4.2% will begin to soften. If inflation expectations fall, the Fed's room for maneuver will open up. If the Fed's tone changes, real interest rates will be reduced. If real interest rates are reduced, the opportunity cost of gold will decrease.
Every link in this chain is positive for gold.
But we need to be honest here.
XAUT is currently trading in a narrow band between 4,195 and 4,222. It's up 0.1% in the last 24 hours and down 2% in the last 7 days. Price action is weak. The daily MA7 is below the MA30, and the MA30 is below the MA120. A strong downtrend is still visible.
The technical chart clearly defines three resistance levels. The area between 4.373 and 4.416 is the first fractal resistance. $4.446 is the 200-day moving average, and $4.587 is the 50-day moving average. To break these levels, the Squeeze Momentum indicator needs to rise above 40. It's currently recovering around 30-35, having risen from minus 30. This momentum movement cannot be ignored. The rapid reversal from negative 30 to positive 21 is a technical reflection of the accumulation.
On the 15-minute chart, the MACD shows a bullish divergence, indicating a short-term uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, the WR is at -11.92, in the overbought region. There may be short-term pullback pressure. If this pullback holds above 4.200, it will be a healthy test rather than a weakening.
Below, there are support levels at 4.102, 4.024, and 3.775. These are areas formed at panic lows before the Iran agreement. As the agreement becomes more permanent, the likelihood of these levels being tested decreases.
Let me summarize the macroeconomic chain again.
The agreement has been signed. The Bosphorus has been opened. Oil prices are falling. Inflationary pressure is easing. The Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its June 16-17 meeting, but the picture will look completely different if the dot plot changes. If the Fed notes the expectation of inflation relief created by the agreement, the September or October interest rate cut scenario comes back to life.
If this scenario occurs, i.e., energy prices fall, inflation declines, and the Fed approaches its pivot, what is the target for gold?
Analysts' predictions are clustered within this range. Deutsche Bank averages $4,450, with a maximum of $4,950. Goldman Sachs is between $4,900 and $5,400. Bank of America maintains its $5,000 target.
Reaching these targets from $4,200 means a movement of between 5% and 28%. Central bank purchases provide a structural foundation in this scenario. The monthly accumulation of 60 to 80 tons continued throughout 2025. This trend did not change. Private investors bought 397 tons of gold bullion in the first quarter of 2026, a 50 percent increase year-on-year. And all this accumulation happened during the decline between $5,589 and $4,000.
Who are the sellers? Primarily those who entered in January and sold at a loss. Who are the buyers? Long-term thinking institutions and central banks.
This divergence is familiar.
I am holding my XAUT position. What changed after the agreement news is this: The energy-related inflation shock, which is the main reason for gold being suppressed at these levels, is starting to resolve. This means that the biggest macro obstacle in front of gold is starting to disappear.
If the resistance between 4,373 and 4,416 is broken, that is, if I see that the momentum has really risen above 40, I will add to the position. If it is not broken, I will continue to hold and my limit orders are ready around 4,100.
I have written a plan. I am following the signals.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
$PAXG ‌$XAUUSD ‌