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📊 #Bitcoin is approaching a crucial equilibrium point in its cycle.
The chart shows that the LTH Realized Price (the cost basis of long-term holders) is beginning to converge towards the STH Realized Price (the cost basis of short-term holders), a phenomenon that has appeared at major transitions in previous cycles.
- 2018-2019: LTH Cost Basis began to accelerate and converge -> the market completed accumulation, opening a new bull cycle.
- 2022-2023: A similar process occurred after the FTX bottom -> #Bitcoin entered a bull market in 2023-2025.
- Currently in 2026: The 7-day rate of change of the LTH Realized Price is increasing sharply again, signaling that long-term capital continues to absorb supply from panic sellers.
The gap between the two groups of investors is narrowing rapidly, reflecting the redistribution of supply from weak hands to strong hands.
- STH Realized Price around $75,300.
- LTH Realized Price around $47,800.
In previous cycles, when the market reached a equilibrium point between STH and LTH, #Bitcoin typically entered the final stage of accumulation before forming a stronger uptrend.
If this historical pattern continues to repeat, this may not be the end of the market cycle, but rather a price base re-establishment phase before another expansion.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Onchain #Crypto #HCCVenture