#我的Gate交易时刻

My thoughts on the current price of Bitcoin

Recently, I made what I believe is the most correct decision in the near term—buying the dip on spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, and GT. Why am I so confident? It stems from my deep reflection on Bitcoin’s current low price. As everyone knows, since the big whale broke below the 200-day moving average (around 100,000 points), I have been bearish and shorting Bitcoin. Over the past six months, I’ve gained some overall profit, but not as much as I imagined. The reason remains the same old issue: obsessing over short-term trades, which leads to being caught in a double squeeze of bulls and bears. But now, I am shifting from a big bear to a dead bull, not only because the current price of over 60,000 is cheap enough, but also for the following reasons:

1. From a technical perspective, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has experienced a complete five-wave downward structure (last week’s low of 59,100 was below the previous low of 59,900, so strictly speaking, the final wave structure is confirmed, but the extent of the extension remains to be seen). It is currently in wave e of the decline, meaning the bear market is in its final stage and could end at any time. This week’s weekly candle closed with a low-position red doji, which could be a harbinger of a reversal or simply a continuation of the decline. However, when combined with the daily chart, the former is more likely. The market is currently forming an arc bottom pattern, indicating a potential bullish trend ahead. But regardless, the market has entered a timing zone for bottom-fishing rather than shorting. Of course, what I am doing now is left-side bottom-fishing.

Here’s a brief explanation of what left-side and right-side bottom-fishing mean—these are two different trading strategies in the investment market, distinguished mainly by the timing of buy-ins and the logic for judging bottoms:

Left-side bottom-fishing refers to gradually buying in during the decline before the bottom is clearly established. It’s a contrarian strategy, often called “主动买套” (active buy-in).

Its core logic is: not predicting the absolute bottom, but judging that the price has fallen to an attractive safety margin, so buy more as it drops, lowering the average cost of the position, and waiting for a trend reversal to profit. Suitable for value investors and large capital deployments, usually employing a “light position, wide stop-loss” strategy.

Right-side bottom-fishing means waiting until the decline ends, the bottom is confirmed, and a trend reversal signal appears before buying in—this is a trend-following strategy.

Its core logic is: abandoning the pursuit of catching the lowest point, focusing on guaranteed gains after the trend becomes clear. Usually, it involves waiting for technical signals like breaking resistance levels or forming a bullish alignment of moving averages before entering, with a one-time purchase and a “large position, small stop-loss” approach.

Many people might ask, if that’s the case, why not choose right-side bottom-fishing?

This relates to the characteristics of the crypto market. Having experienced four cycles of bull and bear markets, my experience suggests that market tops and bottoms often occur when everyone least expects them. The more you try to catch the bottom on the right side, the more likely you are to fall into the trap of chasing highs and selling lows.

2. From the perspective of capital flow, recent large outflows by institutions have changed the “death spiral” structure that caused the price to fall. Institutions have started secretly buying again around the 60,000 level! On June 12, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $85.8 million, ending five consecutive days of capital outflow. Led by BlackRock’s iBit, which contributed about $58 million, the iBit holdings surpassed 806.7k BTC (worth about $63.7 billion), accounting for 3.84% of the total Bitcoin supply, reaching a new high.

3. From the deviation of price levels, since the high of 120,000 and the subsequent decline, the total drop has reached 50%. On the weekly chart, this is the final wave of the five-wave decline, often called the “last dip” of the bear market. The market could reverse at any time. For long-term investors, the current prices are already quite cheap. Do you feel that every time you try to catch the bottom, it appears unexpectedly, and the reversal often happens when everyone thinks it’s just a “mountain pass”?

4. Lastly, and most importantly, considering our original motivation for trading Bitcoin—our reason for buying Bitcoin was because of the “digital gold” narrative and its long-term value. If that’s the case, why not accumulate more at the current low prices? After all, time has proven that holding long-term and going long on Bitcoin are the safest and most relatively stable investment strategies. So, family members, now is the time to buy more Bitcoin and strengthen your conviction!