#我的Gate交易时刻 Understand SpaceX's buying logic all at once

SpaceX is listed, causing a global stir, with the topic at full blast. What exactly does this company do? What is its business model? Is it profitable? Where are its advantages? Where are its disadvantages? Where is the certainty? Where is the uncertainty? Where are the risks? Should I buy? Can I buy? When to buy? What will happen after buying? What is the logic behind it? Let’s explore together.
SpaceX is a space exploration technology company headquartered in Texas, USA. The founder is Elon Musk. Its main businesses are divided into three parts:
Rocket launches, Starlink, and xAI
The profit comes from rocket launches, which can be understood as space logistics. It is the first company to achieve rocket recovery technology, currently holding over 80% of the global commercial launch market share; next is the Starlink business, essentially a global space telecommunications network, relying on a large satellite constellation to charge broadband fees to users worldwide and the U.S. military.
The money-losing part is xAI, responsible for processing massive global satellite real-time images, performing orbital-level autonomous driving calculations, and providing computing power for Starlink terminals. But it’s extremely costly— to maintain and even surpass OpenAI, xAI spends about $49.69k each quarter mainly on NVIDIA chips, building super data centers, and paying electricity bills.
The future development directions are: in the short term, to completely disrupt traditional space launches and intercontinental logistics; in the medium term, to establish computing centers in space; and the ultimate goal is Mars colonization.
So if this company is to go public, it needs a valuation. For such a monster company, Wall Street uses a segmented valuation method. They break down SpaceX: valuing rocket launch as a defense and logistics company; valuing Starlink as a telecom giant; valuing xAI as an internet tech giant like OpenAI or Microsoft; then adding a premium for interstellar colonization.
Finally, they set the price at $135 per share, resulting in the largest IPO in human capital history!
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO information:
Stock code and exchange: SPCX (NASDAQ)
Listing date: June 12, 2026
Fixed IPO price: $135/share
Total shares: about 43.67k shares.
Total market cap at issuance: $1.77 trillion
Number of circulating shares in this public offering: 29.02k shares. Actual circulating proportion: 4.2%
Now, if we buy in now, will the stock first fall then rise, or rise then fall and then rise again?
First, answer a question: if a company is perfectly certain to be good, can ordinary people still buy? In other words, if SpaceX only has rocket and Starlink businesses and is making so much money, its stock would definitely be out of reach for most people. It’s precisely because of the variable xAI that everyone has a chance to participate.
Because of these uncertainties, the market’s multifaceted nature is formed—strength and hype coexist as the norm. To understand how the stock price might move later, let’s first look at whether the $135 valuation is high or very high.
Is this price high? From a profit-driven perspective, investment banks charge a one-time fee for buying and selling—they tend to prefer higher valuations. For SpaceX, a higher valuation is more advantageous. Then there are lawyers, who only handle principle-based issues, not the dream premium.
From all angles, raising the valuation maximizes everyone’s interests. The only ones who might get hurt are retail investors.
On the other hand, SpaceX itself is a great company that’s also good at storytelling. Plus, with everyone’s almost religious fanaticism for Musk, the tolerance for his unique charisma is high. Institutions will naturally also push the stock price higher.
Even so, if we look at the global market cap rankings, we find that this valuation is still too outrageous—starting in the top ten. A slight rise could accidentally surpass Apple. How much room is there left?
Here are the top ten global market caps:
NVIDIA: $4.969 trillion
Alphabet (Google): $4.367 trillion
Apple: $4.275 trillion
Microsoft: $2.902 trillion
Amazon: $2.566 trillion
TSMC: $2.198 trillion
Broadcom: $1.817 trillion
SpaceX: $1.77 trillion
Saudi Aramco: $1.752 trillion
Tesla: $1.526 trillion
The answer lies in the circulating shares. At the first trading, the truly transferred circulating market cap is only about $25.66k, roughly a mid-cap stock. Since circulating shares account for less than 5% of the total shares, over 95% are held by founders, major shareholders, and executives.
In theory, a 5% float rising to the sky is understandable. The total market cap calculated by multiplying the stock price of this 5% float by the total shares is just a virtual value.
That leaves only one question: can you make a profit and sell before these 95% of shares are dumped? Theoretically yes, and many people think so. This involves the lock-up periods for major shareholders: starting from day 90, some early investors and small shareholders are unlocked, usually accounting for 5%-10% of total shares. If you’re an institution, you typically pause hype half a month in advance, then short-sell and front-run.
From day 180, a huge amount of stock from early VCs, institutional investors, and employee holdings will be unlocked—possibly 30%-40% of total shares. If you’re an institution, you’ll also front-run about a month ahead.
On day 365, Musk himself and core executives hold over 40%. If they sell, it’s usually a big negative.
So these 180 days are critical— a chaotic window where anything can happen, regardless of how high or absurd the stock price gets.
Having understood these logics, our most probable scenario is: whether in core business or imagination space, SpaceX is very attractive. Coupled with everyone’s worship of Musk, and the small float, the stock price can continue upward. Institutions will fully exploit retail enthusiasm.
Therefore, the most likely pattern is: initial rise, repeated high-level oscillations, false breakouts downward, needle-pinning up and down, then further rise, deep correction, rebound, then decline until the lock-up period ends.
For retail investors, it’s wise not to participate within these six months. If you do, it should be just for fun, not heavy positions.
For long-term believers who trust that SpaceX can continue monopolizing space business and realize grander dreams, and see the current as just the starting point of the universe, there’s no problem. But wait for 180 days or even 1-3 years—let the major shareholders sell out, the chips turn over thoroughly, and the fundamentals return—then buy when the price has fallen enough. That’s the safest approach. $SPCX