BTC at $64,500, did you cut your losses?

First look at the surface: the entire network is shouting "the bull market is over," and the fear index has dropped to 25.

In the past month, BTC has fallen 20%, and for the first time, the weekly chart broke below the 200-week moving average. But just now, ETF saw a net inflow of $85 million in a single day (led by BlackRock), and the price jumped 9% from $59,000. The candlestick chart shows: support repeatedly held at $61,500–$62,000, MACD histogram narrows, RSI at 37, neutral leaning low—no more downward movement, but do you still dare to buy?

First thing: MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC, scaring everyone.

This is MicroStrategy’s first time selling coins in history. Only 32 coins, worth less than $2 million. But the market reaction was like the sky was falling. Why? Because the word "first time" amplified retail panic by 100 times.

The same news, in a bull market, no one would pay attention. In a bear market, it becomes solid evidence that "institutions are starting to sell."

It’s not that the news changed, but that your panic did.

Second thing: After 13 days of ETF outflows, it finally turned into inflows.

From mid-May to early June, ETF weekly outflows totaled $1.67 billion, with cumulative outflows exceeding $4 billion. Thirteen consecutive days of net outflows—this is a historic level of selling pressure.

The selling pressure mainly comes from Grayscale and retail panic selling. BlackRock’s IBIT has been accumulating, leading to a net inflow of $85 million on June 12.

Historical data shows: after each period of ETF outflows followed by the first net inflow, BTC tends to rebound an average of 18% over the next 30 days.

Third thing: The worst macro moment might be the best moment.

CPI year-over-year at 4.2%, core inflation unrestrained, Federal Reserve interest rates still at 3.5%-3.75%, rate cut expectations almost zero, and some even call for rate hikes.

BTC rose from $16k to $73k during a rate hike cycle. Bitcoin has never gone up because of rate cuts; it’s because fiat currency credit collapses that Bitcoin rises.

And next week (June 17-18), if the Federal Reserve meeting signals a slightly dovish stance, even without a rate hike, how will risk assets that have been suppressed for two months move?

Long and short battle, see for yourself.

One side is:

ETF outflows may be ending, with a net inflow of $85 million on June 12.

Support at $61,500–$62,000, held three times.

Supply continues to tighten after the halving, miners’ hash rate remains high (900 EH/s).

Fear index at 25—historically, when it drops into single digits or around 30, it’s a mid-term buy point.

MicroStrategy’s sale of 32 BTC is just symbolic, not a dump.

The other side is:

Monthly decline of 20%, weekly breaking below the 200-week MA, medium-term technical weakness.

CPI at 4.2%, the Fed may turn more hawkish.

Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties still exist.

If it breaks below $61,500, it could drop to $55,000–$58,000.

Key level at $64,500, just $500 away from the critical 65,000 line.

Resistance above: $65,000 → $67,000 → $70,000 (psychological barrier) → $73,000.

Support below: $62,500 → $61,500 (strong support) → $59,000.

Short-term traders:

Don’t chase at $64,500 now. Wait for a pullback to $62,000–$62,500 to buy in batches, with a stop loss at $61,000. First target: $65,000–$67,000, second target: $70,000. If you want to short, try a small position around $65,000, with a stop loss at $65,500.

Swing traders:

Wait for the results of the June 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting.

If dovish → add positions above $64,000, target $75,000–$80,000.

If hawkish → wait for around $61,500 to buy again; hold if it doesn’t break.

Long-term believers:

Invest blindly below $62,000. Target $90,000–$100,000 by the end of 2026, betting on continued ETF inflows plus macro easing that’s late but will come.

BTC now is just like March 2020—

Market crash to 3,800, everyone shouting "Bitcoin is going to zero," but a year later, it rose to 60k.

It’s not that Bitcoin is no good; it’s that you’re always the most afraid when #我的Gate交易时刻 it’s the best time to buy.