Time to Buy Ethereum? ETH on Track for 2nd Worst First Half – But Analyst Says Yes

Ethereum investors have had a brutal 2026. The second‑largest crypto is down 29.26% in Q1 and another 20.78% in Q2 so far. That puts ETH on track for its second worst first half of the year, behind only 2022.

But one analyst, Daan, just asked a simple question: Is it time to accumulate yet?

His answer leans yes for long‑term buyers, though he warns bear markets can last longer than expected.

Let us break down his tweet, the data he shared, and Ethereum’s current technical setup. Then I will give my own view on whether I am buying here.

• Daan’s Take: The Worst Nine Months Since 2022
• The Quarterly Returns Table: A Clear Picture
• Ethereum Chart Analysis: 4‑Hour and Daily
• My Personal Take: Not Accumulating Yet

Daan’s Take: The Worst Nine Months Since 2022

Popular analyst Daan posted on X that Ethereum is having an extremely bad nine months. The token topped after the “BMNR accumulation craze” and has been sliding ever since.

He shareed three key data points:

2. Ethereum is on track for its second worst first half of the year – only 2022 was worse.
3. This is only the second time ETH has seen back‑to‑back red quarters (Q1 and Q2 both negative). The other time was 2022.
4. We are about to see three consecutive red quarters in a row for the first time since… likely 2022 as well.

Daan still believes Ethereum will play an important role in tokenization, DeFi, and the broader crypto ecosystem. He also thinks current levels are finally attractive again for long‑term accumulation measured in years.

But he added a critical caution: bear markets can go on for longer than you expect. Keeping some dry powder for unforeseen circumstances never hurts. Slow and steady wins the race.

The Quarterly Returns Table: A Clear Picture

The image Daan shared shows Ethereum’s quarterly returns from 2016 to 2026.

The 2026 data is painful:

• Q1: -29.26%
• Q2: -20.78% (so far)

Only 2022 had a worse first half: Q1 -10.75% and Q2 -67.34%. That was the post‑LUNA collapse and Three Arrows Capital blowup.

What stands out is how rare back‑to‑back red quarters are. Before 2022, Ethereum never had two consecutive negative quarters. Now it has happened twice in four years. That signals an unusually long and deep correction.

The table also shows Ethereum’s historic tendency to bounce hard after deep red periods. Q3 2022 was +24.09%, Q3 2023 was -13.64% (mild), but Q4 of both years posted strong gains (+36.66% in 2023, +28.34% in 2024). The question is whether 2026 follows that pattern or breaks it.

Read also: Most Traders Will Scroll Past This Claude AI’s Ethereum Price Prediction

Ethereum Chart Analysis: 4‑Hour and Daily

The TradingView chart provided shows ETH/USD on the 4‑hour timeframe (Bitstamp) as of today (June 14, 2026).

Price action: Ethereum currently trades near $1,675. The price has been consolidating between roughly $1,550 and $1,800 for the past two weeks. The 4‑hour candles show lower highs and lower lows since the early June bounce from $1,550.

200‑day moving average: The blue line on the chart sits at $2,414. That is nearly 45% above the current price. Ethereum has been trading well below its 200‑day MA since late April, a classic sign of a bear market. Historically, ETH needs to reclaim the 200‑day MA to signal a trend change.

Source: TradingView

RSI (14): The RSI on the 4‑hour chart reads 52.86 – perfectly neutral. That tells us there is no oversold bounce pending, nor is there overbought pressure. The market is balanced in the very short term, but that balance is tilted toward the downside because price is stuck near lows.

Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $1,720 (recent high), then $1,800.
• Major resistance: $2,000 (psychological), then the 200‑day MA at $2,414.
• Support: $1,600, then $1,550 (recent low). A break below $1,550 opens the door to $1,400.

Prediction for today (June 14): Ethereum will likely trade between $1,650 and $1,720. No major catalyst is expected over the weekend. A break above $1,720 could push ETH to test $1,800 next week. A break below $1,650 would retest $1,600.

My Personal Take: Not Accumulating Yet

Daan makes a reasonable case. Ethereum is historically cheap relative to its 200‑day MA. The quarterly returns table shows that deep red periods have often been followed by strong recoveries.

But I am personally not accumulating Ethereum right now.

Here is why.

First, the macro environment is still hostile. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates on June 16. Previous BOJ hikes triggered Bitcoin drops of 18‑32%. Ethereum will not decouple. One more leg down is possible.

Second, ETF outflows continue. Institutions are not buying. The 30‑day ETF demand growth is at its worst reading since launch. Without that structural demand, Ethereum has no fuel for a sustainable rally.

Third, the summer months in crypto are historically slow. September and October have often marked better entry points after the summer lull. I would rather keep dry powder – exactly what Daan advised – and wait for either a capitulation spike in realized losses or a clear reversal signal, such as a daily close above $1,800.

I may start accumulating from September, when the harsh summer ends and macro catalysts (Fed, BOJ, tensions in the Middle East, etc.) become clearer. Until then, I watch. Not financial advice, of course.