Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to $64,500 before entering a high-level sideways consolidation, currently hovering around $64,400.

The resistance zone between $64,000 and $65,000 has been repeatedly validated by the market, with a large number of sell orders piled up in the order book, making an upward breakthrough very challenging.
Currently, the bears are temporarily holding their ground, as trading volume has shrunk to very low levels, and everyone is waiting for two major events: whether the US and Iran can successfully sign the relevant agreement this week, and the upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
The bulls have taken advantage of the market’s hesitation to gradually raise prices slightly, slowly pushing the market below the current resistance level.
Although this rebound has raised the market lows somewhat and the short-term trend appears somewhat eased, for the bulls to truly open up upside space, they must firmly break above $65,000.
There is also a detail to be cautious about: during the weakening phase of the market, the funding rate remains positive, indicating that leverage positions in the market are continuously increasing, yet the momentum for price increases is weakening.
This kind of divergence in market signals often hints at significant downside risk.
If the current resistance cannot be broken through, the support zone between $60,000 and $59,000 will face another test.
Even if a lucky breakout occurs, the next dense liquidity zone will be around $74,000.
Combined with the trading volume, this upward move has not seen any volume expansion; it remains a typical bearish structure of declining volume on rebounds and increasing volume on declines.
Buyers’ absorption capacity is far below the selling pressure.
I still maintain my previous judgment that the $64,500-$65,000 range is the top of this rebound, with about an 80% probability.
Recent geopolitical news divergences have directly influenced short-term sentiment: Trump previously publicly stated that the agreement would be signed today, and many sources predicted negotiations would be finalized within 24 hours.
However, Iran’s official denial of today’s signing claims only revealed that negotiations will continue in the coming days.
Both sides have significant disagreements: Iran needs the US to unfreeze $24 billion in assets and maintain control over the Strait, while the US wants to limit Iran’s nuclear-related materials.
Even the consensus on a short-term ceasefire has not been fully finalized.
The likelihood of a smooth signing today has greatly decreased, with the most probable outcome being a temporary extension of the ceasefire and continued negotiations.
Even if the agreement is finally reached, it will most likely only cause a brief spike in the coin price to around $65,000.
Once the news is priced in, profit-taking pressure will likely follow, making it an opportune moment to short the market.
Blindly chasing the rally at this point is highly risky.
Compared to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the upcoming rate hike by the Bank of Japan is a certain bearish factor that cannot be avoided.
The rate decision will be announced tomorrow or the day after, with a market consensus expecting a 25 basis point increase, bringing the rate to 1%, the highest in nearly 30 years.
Historical market behavior shows that each rate hike by Japan results in significant sell-offs in risk assets, with Bitcoin sometimes dropping over 20% in a single move.
Regardless of how the US-Iran negotiations unfold, liquidity tightening will continue to exert downward pressure, leaving only a day or two for market speculation.
Currently, at the 64,400 level, it’s best to stay on the sidelines; do not chase longs, as the risk-reward ratio in this strong resistance zone is too low.
Those holding high-position shorts can continue to hold and wait.
If subsequent news triggers a rally to the $65,000-$66,000 range with weak upward momentum, it’s a good opportunity to add to short positions.
After the Japan rate hike news is released, if the price effectively breaks below $62,500, consider adding to shorts.
If the $60,000 level is broken, increase your positions accordingly to follow the trend.
The initial target is the $60,000 support, then look towards the $57,000-$58,000 range.
The ultimate bottom of this correction is around $42,000-$45,000.
Remember to keep total position sizes within 25%, and use low leverage to manage risk.
Everyone must rationally view this geopolitical positive news: even if a ceasefire is reached in the short term, it’s only a 60-day temporary truce, not a complete resolution of regional conflicts.
There remains a risk of renewed escalation later.
Don’t be fooled by short-term pulse movements; $64,500 has never been the bottom of this decline, and the $60,000 level cannot sustain ongoing selling pressure.
This decline is only halfway through; patiently wait for macro negative factors to materialize and operate along #美国5月CPI创三年新高 the main trend.