The US and Iran are about to sign a peace agreement online, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open for free passage—this transmission path to the crypto market is more direct than most people imagine.

Crude oil is the underlying fuel of global liquidity. The opening of the strait means the rapid disappearance of Middle Eastern geopolitical premiums, and a downward shift in the oil price center will directly lower global inflation expectations.
As inflation expectations decline, the Federal Reserve's tightening narrative loosens, and the valuation anchors of risk assets will truly move upward.
Currently, what the crypto market lacks most is not narrative, but macro liquidity. If the US-Iran agreement is implemented, it is akin to removing a geopolitical bomb before the Fed cuts interest rates.
However, the execution of the agreement is full of uncertainties—Israel's security cabinet will review it on Sunday, and while Iran's internal approval probability is high, any reversals will cause the market to reprice risk.
In the short term, BTC and ETH react slowly to such macro signals, but the turning point in capital flow often lies in structural changes that the market overlooks.
After the agreement is signed, the decay in crude oil futures volatility will be an early indicator of whether capital is beginning to shift toward risk assets.
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