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🔴 Speculative capital is betting $27.8B on long USD positions — the highest since early 2025.
Interestingly, market sentiment is changing rapidly. From -$25B short at the beginning of 2026 to +$27.8B long in just a few months.
This is the fastest and most significant shift in positions in the past three years.
The common narrative to explain this rotation:
- The Fed has shown no signs of cutting interest rates soon -> the USD interest rate differential remains attractive
- The US economy is outperforming compared to the EU, Japan, China
- Geopolitical tensions mean cash is still king.
These are what the media mention, but I think the real drivers are carry trade (EUR and JPY interest rates are still lower than USD), hedging against geopolitical risks, and the rest is just funds buying in because USD is rising too much, without any fundamental reason.