Bitcoin Has Never Survived a Full Bull-Bear Cycle Under 5% U.S. Treasury Bond Yields—This Time Is the First

Guess what the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was on the day Bitcoin was born?

About 3.5%.

And today? 5.2%—the highest in nearly 19 years.

That means: from the genesis block to today, Bitcoin has never fully made it through an entire bull-bear cycle in an environment where “long-end interest rates have stayed above 5%.” This time, it’s the first time.

This isn’t just about high interest rates.

CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6.5%, and the European Central Bank has just raised rates—“stagflation” is already written all over the face.

Inflation won’t come down, and growth can’t go up. For risk assets, this is called the Davis double kill: liquidity expectations tighten, and both narratives and earnings expectations deteriorate together.

On June 16-17, global liquidity is about to take a double hit.

On the 16th, the Bank of Japan will release its rate decision, and reports say it is considering further rate hikes. The world’s last “zero interest rate funding pool” is also starting to shrink—closing arbitrage trades will be like pulling the plug on a bathtub, siphoning money out of every market.

Then on the 17th, the new chair of the Fed, Wash, will preside over the FOMC for the first time. The market is pricing in a 97.4% probability that nothing will be changed in June—but the real game isn’t whether there will be a rate hike or not; it’s whether the dot plot and the statement will reintroduce rate-hike options.

Wash’s debut is likely to be hawkish. When a new official takes office, the first order of business is to establish authority.

So what’s the situation right now?

A macro stress test Bitcoin has never experienced: 30-year U.S. Treasuries at 5.2% + stagflation + Japan raising rates + the Fed possibly shifting hawkish.

Don’t talk to me about halving, ETFs, or narratives. With long-end interest rates above 5%, all risk assets are slaves to gravity.

As for the trading strategy—simple and straightforward:

Before June 17, any rebound is a chance to reduce exposure.

Don’t fantasize about a V-shaped reversal. Wait for the two central bank decisions to land, and see whether long-end rates can fall back below 5%. If they can, a retaliatory rebound is on the cards; if they can’t, just keep enduring.

If Wash unexpectedly turns dovish—that’s the real moment to “buy on divergence.” But the probability is low, so don’t bet on it.

The last sentence is for everyone still holding full positions:

“The money you made over the past four years was made in an environment where interest rates were 3%. Now that rates have doubled, your trading system hasn’t been updated.”

The tuition Bitcoin has to pay this time may be more expensive than in any previous time. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #美PPI创两年半新高 $BTC $ETH $SOL