The Secret of Bitcoin Halving Cycles: You Think You're Trading Coins, But You're Actually Acting Out a Well-Written Script

This article may touch on the interests of many big players, and could be censored at any time. It’s also a recent coincidental truth I’ve collected and organized: the essence of finance is just a performance tool for capital to complete its harvest!

Have you ever had this feeling:

Clearly watching the K-line, but feeling like there’s an invisible hand controlling the market? Like timing has been calculated—every time the market panics to the point you want to cut losses, it’s exactly the bottom? Every time you finally can’t resist jumping in to chase the rally, it’s exactly the top?

You’ve cursed yourself as a leek, cursed the whales, cursed this irrational market.

But today, I want to talk to you about a deeper truth—this market isn’t irrational. It’s too rational.

Its logic is written in a script called “Bitcoin Halving.” And you, I, even those well-known big institutions, exchanges, top-tier giants, are just actors in this script.

1. A Well-Written Calendar: The Precise Rhythm of Halving Cycles

First, look at a set of undeniable facts: Bitcoin halves every four years. The block reward is cut in half. And each time, the market’s rhythm is almost identical: last October’s pinned article openly discussed Bitcoin halving cycles, giving a clear target of 126,200 as the top of this cycle. Now, looking back, it’s been validated!

November 2012 halving, topped in November 2013, rose 600 times. Then a crash, bottom in January 2015. July 2016 halving, topped in December 2017, rose 133 times. Then a crash, bottom in December 2018. May 2020 halving, topped in November 2021, rose 21 times. Then a crash, bottom in November 2022. (Those who don’t believe in cycles are still outside the script.)

Have you noticed?

Top occurs 12-18 months after halving, bottom occurs 25-30 months after halving. This isn’t some mysterious metaphysics. It’s a repeatedly validated calendar. Three times—once by coincidence, twice by chance, and three times—what do you call this? A pattern.

And it’s becoming more precise each time.

2. The Actors in the Script: Big Institutions and Big Players Trust This Cycle More Than You

Some say, “This time is different, institutions have entered, the cycle will change.” But have you considered a more terrifying possibility—that institutions aren’t here to break the cycle, but to use the cycle to harvest?

Let’s review what happened in the last cycle:

November 2022, Bitcoin dropped to $15,400.

What happened that month? FTX collapsed. The second-largest exchange in the world went bankrupt overnight. SBF was arrested, billions evaporated. Market panic peaked. Everyone around you was saying “Crypto is finished.” Did you sell? Maybe you couldn’t withstand the pressure and handed over your holdings.

But look at the calendar: November 2022 was exactly the 30th month after the May 2020 halving.

That’s the “bear market bottom window” of the halving cycle. Do you think FTX’s collapse was accidental or arranged? (Creating panic to wipe out the market, so the bottom can be handed over—some might say, why explode at the bottom? If not at the bottom, wait until $100K? Exploding at the bottom minimizes damage and allows a big reshuffle.)

March 2023, market dips again.

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Signature Bank shut down, USDC de-pegged. These are the most relied-upon traditional banking interfaces in crypto. Panic swept again. Did you fire your last bullets? Are you scared?

But look again at the calendar: March 2023 was the 35th month after the May 2020 halving. Historically, this position is the last scare shakeout. Do you think bank failures then were accidental or part of the plot?

April 2024, Bitcoin halving.

And a month before halving, in March 2024, Bitcoin broke through the previous high of $69,000. The first time in history. It surpassed the previous high before halving. Do you think “this time is different”? Have you considered that the script has changed but the director hasn’t?

Institutions hurriedly pushed the price up before halving—why? To attract global attention to the “halving rally.” To make everyone rush in. To turn FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) into the hottest emotion of 2024.

And then? October 2025, Bitcoin reaches around $126,200. Do you remember what happened then?

Let me help you recall:

A certain exchange suddenly exposed management upheaval, several executives taken for investigation. Mt. Gox’s dormant wallet moved a huge amount of Bitcoin again. The whole market shouted “This time is different, the super cycle is coming, look at $300K.” (I warned everyone that the top was in, but many believed the so-called big players: “This time is different, a super big cycle is coming, keep pushing.”) Could they all be dumping, throwing smoke screens to confuse everyone? The market reacted too strongly. To prevent loss of faith, they used influence to spread the idea of a super cycle—completing a legitimate harvest?

Then, it crashed. Look at the calendar: October 2025 is exactly 18 months after April 2024 halving. The “bull market top window” of the halving cycle—precise to the month.

Do you still think those news are accidental?

Those so-called big players, shouting bearish at the bottom, bullish at the top. Exchange collapses, regulatory hammer, even conflicts between nations—these are like carefully staged props, appearing exactly where the cycle needs them. We should think deeply—this is the essence of finance!

3. You See Through the Truth, But Can the Truth Help You Make Money?

I know what you’re thinking. If you see through all this, you might feel angry: “Are we retail investors just designed to be played from start to finish?” I was angry too, but then I understood. This cycle script isn’t written specifically to harm you. It’s also the only script that can turn things around for you.

Why? Because institutions and whales can create volatility, news, panic, greed. But they can’t change Bitcoin halving. They can’t change the code that cuts block rewards in half every four years. They can’t change human greed and fear. Cycles are about timing. Events are about geography. Human nature is about harmony. They can weave a grand show with these three elements, but they can’t destroy the cycle itself.

If you know when the next act begins, you can get your seat early. Instead of rushing into the theater at the end.

4. Where Are You in the Cycle Now?

Friend, the current time is June 2026. If the 2024 halving was in April, according to historical patterns:
Bull market top window: May-October 2025 (already fulfilled)
Bear market bottom window: May-October 2026 (we are here now)

What you’re experiencing is the 26th-28th month after halving—the most despairing bottom in history. All the scary news—an exchange fined, a project爆雷, a big player arrested—are they fundamentally different from FTX in 2022 or bank failures in 2023?

No. They are just props in the same play. Props change, but the script doesn’t. In November 2022, you looked at Bitcoin at $15,400, thinking “It will fall further, wait.” Then it went up. In October 2025, you see Bitcoin at $126,200, thinking “It will rise further, wait and see.” Then it came down. (Some are spreading the idea that a super cycle is coming.)

Now, June 2026, what are you thinking? “Wait and see, it will fall again”? Maybe a slight retracement, reaching support levels around 4.5 and 4.3. That’s why I emphasize that all short positions should be small, mainly short-term. The real goal is to wait for an extreme negative news event or panic to appear, then go against the trend and buy spot at the bottom—only then can you escape the fate of a leek and turn the tide, making a comeback. Not blindly following the crowd. In finance, we must develop reverse thinking!

5. I Don’t Want to Give You Pep Talks, I Only Want to Ask You Three Questions

First question:

If you believe this market is manipulated by an invisible hand, then why doesn’t this hand push you away at the bottom and pull you in at the top? Actually, they are doing just that. The fear you feel now just needs a more extreme panic event—when everyone is utterly desperate and throws their blood-stained chips—that’s the real reversal point!

Second question:

If halving cycles are invalid, then why have the top and bottom times of each cycle been precise to the month four times in a row? Calculate the probability yourself—how low is that?

Third question:

If we are already at the bottom (whether it’s 50K or 40K), and you’re holding your hard-earned capital, would you cut losses now or hold on for another half year?

6. Turning the Tides Isn’t About Luck

I wrote this article not to tell you the exact date and price Bitcoin will fall to. I want to tell you: dawn is near. I know you’re tired. I know you doubt. Honestly, since I analyzed that 126K was the top last October, I doubted my judgment too. I know you might have lost a lot, listened to too many scammers, heard too many slogans.

But today, remember one thing: you are not a leek. You are just someone who hasn’t yet grasped the script. Now, the script is in your hands. History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes with similar endings. The halving cycle’s rhyme has been repeated four times. The fifth time, it’s highly unlikely to be missed.

What you need to do now isn’t to predict exact points, but to think clearly: when the bottom truly arrives, do you have the courage to follow your pre-written plan and pick up those blood-stained chips?

I choose to believe in the cycle. What about you? Finally, I want to hear your story~

What were you doing at the bottom of the 2022 bear market? Selling? Bottom-fishing? Or at the top of the 2025 bull market, did you run or jump in?

Share in the comments. I have no mockery, only those who have fought the same war. Waiting for you.

Note: This article is just a personal burst of inspiration—a reverse thinking piece. The extreme events and news mentioned are from publicly available market information. I simply reassembled them according to the timing of halving cycles. It’s just so coincidental, so miraculous. Many uncertainties remain, so please approach with #我的Gate交易时刻 rationality!