June 13

(1) SPCX soars after listing; Elon Musk’s net worth tops $1 trillion

SpaceX went public on NASDAQ on Friday, closing at $161, up 19%.

Market capitalization surpassed $2.1 trillion, placing it directly among the United States’ sixth-largest companies.

Elon Musk’s net worth also broke through $1 trillion, making him the first trillionaire in human history.

Previously, subscription funds exceeded $150 billion; the extra funds have begun to be unfrozen, and some of the capital may flow back into risk-asset markets again.

However, next up are the large IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI lined up in sequence, so the capital “siphon” effect may not be completely over yet.

(2) The US-Iran agreement is set to be signed; likely to be finalized by this weekend at the earliest

“King of knowledge” says the agreement could be signed either this weekend or next Monday. Senior US officials also say that they are currently “very close to the finish line.”

At present, the United Arab Emirates has agreed to release $10–20 billion to Iran, and the first tranche of more than $3 billion has already been in place.

Oil prices have already fallen quite a bit; if the agreement is officially signed, risk assets will likely rise again in another round.

(3) Trading/investment approach

Positive developments are being gradually realized:

The framework of the US-Iran agreement has basically been settled, and the capital siphon from the SpaceX IPO has also temporarily come to a pause.

Now, there is only one core risk left:

Next Tuesday—June 17—the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

The market broadly expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 1%. If it turns out to be more hawkish than expected, it could trigger a short-term selloff and forced closing of arbitrage trades.

But if the result matches expectations, or even turns out to be dovish, then that would be “bad news fully priced in.”

So at this point, perhaps it’s a good time to start staggered dollar-cost averaging.

When others are panicking, we can be a bit greedier. #btc #eth #XAU