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Alliance Liangchuang：Kalshi products have a net negative effect on on-chain liquidity or may weaken the native network effects of cryptocurrencies

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Wu reported that Imran, co-founder of Alliance, stated that a series of products launched by the US compliance prediction market platform Kalshi essentially have a net negative effect on "on-chain liquidity." Imran believes that each time Kalshi launches a new product, it is effectively siphoning trading liquidity from the on-chain environment into offshore/traditional off-chain closed-loop environments. This also causes new users entering the market through Kalshi to be more inclined to stay within its closed off-chain ecosystem, rather than converting into crypto-native users on Hyperliquid, Polymarket, or other public blockchains. Imran is concerned that although on-chain liquidity is currently sufficient to absorb this diversion, in the long term, if the primary needs of marginal users and marginal funds are captured off-chain first by compliant platforms like Kalshi, then the capital, positions, and settlement states tied to it will become disconnected from the crypto ecosystem.
KALSHI2.91%
HYPE3.48%
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0xLateCoffee
· 8h ago
Whoever has tried the comfort of offshore closed loops knows how good it feels—but if crypto-native can't even hold the most active trading layer, how could the story go on?
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BearMarketInAPaperCup
· 12h ago
On-chain liquidity siphoning has happened before; it was played out during the CEX era, just now it’s wearing a different compliance disguise.
View OriginalReply0
LighthouseInTheMist
· 12h ago
Kalshi’s move is truly ruthless—traditional capital has gotten used to compliant custody, so who would want to touch that whole messy setup of wallet private keys?
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-e3701961
· 12h ago
In the short term, trading volume looks pretty good, but in the long term... Once marginal users develop habits, the motivation to return to the chain will indeed diminish, and someone needs to think about how to break this deadlock.
View OriginalReply0

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