$63,500 Bitcoin, are you still waiting for a lower price?

First look at the surface: a bunch of bad news, but the price hasn't dropped.

In early June, it hit a low of $59k, and the market was in panic. The Iran situation cooled down, rebounding back to $63,500-$63,800. Slightly up 0.3% in 24 hours, about 5% increase over 7 days. The candlestick chart shows: V-shaped rebound from the low, testing resistance at $64.4k, support at $62k-$62,500. RSI/MACD are neutral, volume mildly expanding—short-term stabilization, but the direction is still uncertain.

The first thing: geopolitical easing saved BTC, but the real pressure is still ahead.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran eased, risk assets collectively took a breath. BTC bounced back from $59k to over $63k, a “macro rescue.”

But have you noticed: this rebound, ETF funds didn't participate at all.

In the week of June, net outflows once reached $1.67 billion, leading products like IBIT continued to bleed. Institutions are fleeing, retail investors are holding.

The second thing: CPI soared to 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates.

May CPI year-over-year 4.2%, core CPI 2.9%, mainly due to oil prices. The Fed's June 16-17 meeting is likely to hold steady, interest rates at 3.50-3.75%, with some starting to discuss “another rate hike.”

The macro environment is extremely unfriendly to BTC:

High inflation → no rate cuts

No rate cuts → liquidity not easing

Liquidity not easing → risk assets under pressure

BTC is highly correlated with US tech stocks, and even Nasdaq is now struggling.

The third thing: on-chain data shows “bottoming features,” but not yet complete.

Long-term holders (LTH) continue to accumulate, unspent BTC supply approaching 80%, a new high. Realized price around $53,600, current price still above that, but MVRV ratio is low—indicating average holder profits are slim, and selling pressure is weak.

There might still be a panic wave before the true bottom.

The weekly head-and-shoulders top pattern is complete and has broken the neckline; technically, the medium-term outlook remains bearish. The daily rebound is just “a correction after oversold,” not a reversal.

Key level: $63,500, only a breakout above $64.5k is promising, falling below $62k is dangerous.

Resistance above: $64,400-$65k (life-and-death line) → $67k → $70k

Support below: $62,000-$62,500 → $60k-$60,800 → $58k-$59,000

Long-term hodlers:

DCA in stages within the $60,000-$62,500 range, buy more each time it drops $1,000. Keep position at 30-40% of total funds, hold cash for black swan at $53k-$55k. Target end-of-year price over $100k, stop-loss if it drops below $58k. Don’t expect to catch the absolute bottom; no one can.

Swing traders:

Lightly buy near $62k-$63k, add more if it breaks above $64.5k, target $67k-$70k, stop-loss at $61.5k.

If $64.4k faces resistance again, consider shorting with small position, target retest of $62k, stop-loss at $65k.

Leverage no more than 5x, prioritize spot trading.

Risk management:

Watch the June 16-17 Fed meeting results (no rate cut expected, but if hawkish surprises, reduce positions immediately).

Monitor ETF daily flows: three consecutive days of net inflow indicate real strength.

Don’t go all-in, don’t hold all positions, don’t believe “this time is different.”

BTC now is like March 2020—

Market crash to 3,800, everyone shouting “digital gold scam.”

And the result?

One year later, it hit 60,000.

The big money is always made by buying in stages during “the most uncertain times,” not by chasing in when #我的Gate交易时刻 “everyone is bullish.”