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June 13 Saturday BTC Early Morning Thoughts
Bitcoin has recently continued to weaken, due to the Fed's rate cut expectations falling short, inflation data strengthening, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, leading to a sell-off of interest-free crypto assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced long-term consecutive net outflows, with institutional funds leaving the market becoming the main bearish factor. Coupled with market funds diverted by SpaceX's IPO and the AI sector, capital shifts to safe havens like the dollar and gold. Cryptocurrency market sentiment has fallen into extreme fear, with large holders reducing holdings and miners selling off, further increasing downward pressure.
On the technical side, the daily double top has broken, moving averages are all downwardly pressured, the hourly rebound lacks momentum, bullish support is weak, and bearish forces are still releasing. The short-term rebound is only a oversold correction, and the overall downtrend has not reversed. The subsequent trend will still depend on the Fed's actions and changes in capital flows.
Operation suggestion: Watch for a rebound at 640-645, $BTC target 625.