As of April 2026, the latest data from FINRA shows that the U.S. stock margin debt has surpassed $1.3 trillion, reaching a record high. In terms of absolute amount, it is in the 95%-100% percentile; in terms of margin debt/GDP, it is in the 90%-95% percentile; in terms of margin debt/total market value, it is in the 80%-90% percentile. This indicates a historically high leverage level, but it has not yet reached the extreme levels seen during the dot-com bubble in 2000.

Margin debt has increased by over 50% year-over-year, with a single-month growth of more than $80 billion. This is already an extremely high expansion rate in history. Based on experience, 0%-10% is considered the early stage of a bull market, 10%-25% the mid-stage, 25%-40% the late stage, and above 40% the frenzy phase. Currently, the market is clearly in a high-heat zone.
But high heat does not mean the top has been reached. A dangerous signal is when the year-over-year growth rate of margin debt turns negative. Because this indicates the market is beginning to actively or passively deleverage.
For the current AI cycle, a more critical factor is whether the AI infrastructure chain is starting to cool down. After all, a fundamental bull market is the true bull.
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