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#认证创作者专属推广任务 During the World Cup, popular topics on Gate Prediction Market (Polymarket):
1. 2026 World Cup Champion Prediction
This is the single event with the strongest liquidity and the highest trading volume in the entire prediction ecosystem. The total transaction volume of the World Cup champion market on Polymarket has exceeded $1.9 billion, making it the largest single contract in sports prediction markets.
Current championship probability rankings:
Spain 16.5% (lowest odds on Polymarket, leading on both major platforms)
France 16% (close behind Spain, AI simulation estimates about 20% chance of winning)
England 11%
Portugal 11% (very lucky, considered by some analysts as the most cost-effective long-term option)
Argentina 9% (defending champion)
Brazil 8% Historically, only 8 national teams have lifted the World Cup trophy. Will a new champion emerge in 2026? This is the biggest suspense in the championship market.
2. Single Match Win/Loss Prediction (Opening Match & Full Schedule)
All 104 World Cup matches have corresponding prediction markets, covering every game from the group stage to the final. The opening match has already seen a large influx of funds:
Mexico vs South Africa:
Already concluded, Mexico won the opener
Korea vs Czech Republic: Difficult to predict, Korea 37%, Czech 34%, Draw 32%, trading volume $1.07 million
USA vs Paraguay: USA 50%, Paraguay 23%, Draw 29%
Gate has also selected 35 key matches to launch daily prediction challenges, with a prize pool of 50,000 USDT for participants, no need to predict correctly.
3. Goal and Handicap Market
The derivative markets for each match are also active:
Total goals: In four opening matches, the implied probability of "under 2.5 goals" is between 57%–59%, with a market tendency towards low-scoring games
Handicap: For example, Mexico -1.5 goals at 41 cents odds, South Africa +1.5 goals at 60 cents odds
4. Personal Honors Markets (Ballon d'Or / Golden Boot / Golden Glove)
Polymarket has launched prediction markets for World Cup individual awards:
Golden Boot (Top Scorer): Mbappé (+600 favorite), Kane (+700), Haaland, Yamal, and other popular candidates each have markets
Ballon d'Or (Best Player): Kane currently has the lowest odds, Yamal and Mbappé follow closely
Golden Glove (Best Goalkeeper): Also available as standalone contracts for trading
5. Team Advancement Depth Markets (Props)
In addition to the champion and single match outcomes, there are many "prop markets" detailing team stage goals:
Will Spain reach the final (about 31%) Will Spain reach the top four (about 45%)
Edge events like whether specific teams will advance from the group stage / round of 16, or whether Iran will participate, also have contracts
6. Other World Cup-related Hot Topics
Group advancement prospects: 48 teams divided into 12 groups, with the top two from each group plus the 8 best third-placed teams advancing; markets for advancement probabilities are very active
Dark horse emergence: With expansion to 48 teams, the space for upsets increases, and contracts related to "new champions" are gaining attention
Final matchup combinations: For example, "Argentina vs Portugal" in the final has odds as high as +4000, viewed as a long-term bet with strong emotional value
Participation Instructions:
1. Update Gate App to v8.22 or above
2. Go to Home → Market Categories → Alpha Prediction → World Cup Zone
3. You can trade directly with USDT using your Gate account, or participate via Web3 wallet using Polygon network USDC
4. Register for the "Green Field Prophet" event to share a total prize pool of over 500,000 USDT
1. 2026 World Cup Champion Prediction
This is the single event with the most liquidity and trading volume in the entire prediction ecosystem. The total trading volume of the World Cup champion market on Polymarket has exceeded $1.9 billion, making it the largest single contract in sports prediction markets.
Current championship probability rankings:
Spain 16.5% (lowest odds on Polymarket, leading on both major platforms)
France 16% (closely following Spain, AI simulation predicts about 20% chance of winning)
England 11%
Portugal 11% (very lucky draw, considered by some analysts as the most cost-effective long-term option)
Argentina 9% (defending champion)
Brazil 8% Historically, only 8 national teams have lifted the World Cup trophy. Will a new champion emerge in 2026? This is the biggest suspense in the champion market.
2. Single Match Win/Loss Prediction (Opening Match & Full Schedule)
All 104 World Cup matches have corresponding prediction markets, covering every game from group stage to final. The opening match has already seen a large influx of funds:
Mexico vs South Africa:
Match concluded, Mexico secured the opening win
Korea vs Czech: Difficult to predict, Korea 37%, Czech 34%, Draw 32%, trading volume $1.07 million
USA vs Paraguay: USA 50%, Paraguay 23%, Draw 29%
Gate has also selected 35 key matches to launch daily prediction challenges, where participants can share a prize pool of 50,000 USDT without needing to predict correctly.
3. Goal and Handicap Market
The derivative markets for each match are also active:
Total Goals: In four opening matches, the implied probability of "under 2.5 goals" is between 57%–59%, with a market tendency toward under
Handicap: For example, Mexico giving 1.5 goals at odds of 41 cents, South Africa receiving 1.5 goals at odds of 60 cents
4. Individual Honors Markets (Ballon d'Or / Golden Boot / Golden Glove)
Polymarket has launched prediction markets for World Cup individual awards:
Golden Boot (Top Scorer): Mbappé (+600, hottest), Kane (+700), Haaland, Yamal, and other popular candidates each have markets
Ballon d'Or (Best Player): Kane currently has the lowest odds, Yamal and Mbappé follow closely
Golden Glove (Best Goalkeeper): Also available as a separate contract for trading
5. Team Advancement Depth Markets (Props)
In addition to the champion and single-match outcomes, there are many "prop markets" detailing each team's stage goals:
Will Spain reach the final? (about 31%) Will Spain reach the top four? (about 45%)
Specific markets for teams qualifying from groups / advancing to the round of 16, and edge cases like whether Iran will participate, are also available.
6. Other World Cup-related Hot Topics
Group Stage Qualification: 48 teams divided into 12 groups, with the top two from each group plus the 8 best third-placed teams advancing. Qualification probability markets are highly active.
Dark Horse Rise: With expansion to 48 teams, the space for upsets increases. Contracts related to "new champions" are gaining attention.
Final Matchup Combinations: For example, "Argentina vs Portugal" final odds are as high as +4000, viewed as a long-term bet with strong emotional value.
Participation Method
1. Update the Gate App to v8.22 or above
2. Go to Home → Market Categories → Alpha Predictions → World Cup Zone
3. Use your Gate account USDT for direct trading, or participate via Web3 wallet using Polygon network USDC
4. Register for the "Green Field Prophet" event to share a total prize pool of over 500,000 USDT