Trump TACO Again: From Large-Scale Strikes to End of War in Less Than 24 Hours @realDonaldTrump

Yesterday: "We will launch the largest strike in history against Iran"
Today: "The US-Iran war is over, handshake and all"
Just a night in between
What did traders do last night:
- Bought gold ✅
- Bought crude oil ✅
- Bought defense stocks ✅
- Last look at their accounts before bed, feeling confident ✅
What traders saw this morning:
- Gold dropped
- Crude oil down 4.6%
- Nasdaq +2.5%
- Account: 💀
This script has actually become very mature, industry calls it "TACO":
Trump Always Chickens Out
The operation process is as standardized as McDonald's:
Step 1: Tweet a threat, tone must be the biggest/unprecedented/never soft
Step 2: Market erupts, gold and oil soar
Step 3: Sign an MoU, declare ~ I won ~
Step 4: Move on to the next topic
The whole process closes within 24 hours, faster than overnight settlement
The only problem is the Iranian Foreign Ministry hasn't received the script yet
Official response: "No final conclusion reached yet"
So the current situation is:
- Trump says: The war is over
- Market says: Believes it, crude oil drops 4%
- Iran says: ...... Let's talk again
The water mines in the Strait of Hormuz: silent
Is the market's reaction today correct?
Brent drops below $100, Nasdaq +2.5%, semiconductors +8%, this is the standard pricing for geopolitical risk removal
But the agreement hasn't been finalized, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry still says no conclusion yet
Using trading language, the market has already priced in a 100% probability of an outcome that still has 20% uncertainty
This is either a clever front-run or the setup for the next TACO
Historical experience tells us:
Those who follow TACO trades will either get chicken or become chicken
DYOR, not investment advice
#特朗普 # US-Iran situation