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Recap of the crypto market:
On the macro front, the decline has slowed down.
There are expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East situation, oil prices have fallen back, and the US dollar has stabilized relatively; although US PPI remains somewhat strong overall, core PPI is below expectations, and inflationary pressure has not continued to worsen.
This environment is not a strong negative for risk assets to keep crashing, more like a pause for sentiment from panic.
But the funding environment in the crypto space has not truly turned strong yet.
BTC ETFs have still been significantly outflowing recently, ETH ETF selling pressure has eased temporarily, but institutional funds have not yet shown signs of a substantial reflow.
So, this is still a recovery after a big drop, short covering and liquidation-driven rebounds, not yet a new trend reversal.
From a technical perspective: BTC is strong in the short term, but has not reversed yet.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Currently around 63.4K, rebounding from about 60K in the short term, structurally stronger than ETH. On a smaller scale, it has already regained above 62K and is approaching the resistance zone of 63.8K-64.2K.
But this is the first test of the resistance zone.
Above 64K, there is a clear short-term liquidation pool, and the price has the motivation to sweep it, but the key is not whether it can reach it, but whether it can hold volume after sweeping.
A true shift to strength requires holding above 64.2K-64.7K, and a pullback that does not break below 62.8K-63K, then continuing upward to 65.5K-66K.
If there is a high-volume surge near 64K and it cannot hold, treat it as a rebound short.
$ETH
Currently around 1665, with weaker intraday rebound compared to BTC.
Short-term recovery from about 1630, but the first resistance remains at 1680-1700, and until 1700-1720 is effectively reclaimed, ETH’s move is more like short covering rather than active buying.
If BTC surges and then falls back, ETH is likely to be weaker, and it will depend on whether the 1630-1600 zone is tested again.
In summary:
This is not the time to chase longs.
BTC is stronger, but still only in a low-level recovery; ETH is more of a weak rebound.
Liquidity above can be swept, but whether it can hold after the sweep is the key. Watch for continuation above 64K; if it cannot hold, treat it as a rebound short.
See detailed chart annotations.
{spot}(ETHUSDT)