| June 12

A few good pieces of news have come in—I’ve started dollar-cost averaging.

(1) US-Iran situation eases, oil prices plunge

Yesterday, Iran and the US reached a memorandum of understanding, confirming an extension of the ceasefire by 60 days, and Lebanon was also included.

The US side said it had ended the war with Iran; once the agreement is officially signed, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened immediately.

Crude oil plunged on the news—Brent fell by more than 5%, and WTI dropped below $85.

However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that no final decision has yet been made, and Iran is also trying to attack commercial ships passing through the strait.

So before the agreement is formally signed, there could still be back-and-forth turmoil in the middle.

(2) SpaceX IPO ends

I had been reminding everyone that the SpaceX IPO would drain a large amount of market funds.

When I looked into it, it was indeed alarming: SPCX’s IPO subscription funds were more than $150 billion—about 2 times the fundraising amount.

After the pre-sale period of the funds ended, the additional $75 billion—some of it may flow back into risk assets.

(3) Trading approach: you can start dollar-cost averaging

Next, focus on the progress of signing the US-Iran agreement framework. The framework has already been released, but it hasn’t been fully implemented yet.

Next Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting will determine the outcome—this is the biggest short-term uncertainty. The market generally expects the yen to be #本央行将加息至 1%.

The Bitcoin ETF has been seeing outflows for more than a month, and I think a reversal will happen soon. I’m dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin. #btc #eth