Bitunix Analyst: The market is beginning to trade on "peaceful expectations," but the real test actually comes from liquidity and high-interest-rate environments

BlockBeats News, June 12 — A significant turning point has occurred in the Middle East situation. Hours after threatening military action against Iran, Donald Trump stated that the US-Iran agreement is close to completion and could be signed as early as this weekend. Qatar, the UAE, Pakistan, and other countries are simultaneously involved in mediation, and the market is beginning to price in the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and a cooling of regional tensions. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry and negotiating team still deny that a final agreement has been reached, and Iran’s military remains on high alert, indicating that geopolitical risks have not truly been resolved.

From a market perspective, the biggest change is not the end of the war but the beginning of funds trying to price in the post-conflict order. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen even publicly mentioned the possibility of using frozen Iranian assets to compensate Gulf countries for losses, indicating that some discussions in the US have shifted from conflict escalation to subsequent reconstruction and regional order arrangements. However, core disagreements over nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Israel’s security concerns remain unresolved, and the market still faces the risk of repeated negotiations.

Meanwhile, another potential change at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is also worth noting. Market expectations suggest that new Chair Kevin Warsh may gradually downplay forward guidance and the dot plot, returning more pricing power to the market. In the context of uncertain inflation and growth prospects, this means that future interest rate paths could become more reliant on market judgment, with bond yields and volatility in risk assets potentially rising further.

For the crypto market, the real pressure still comes from liquidity. Data shows that cryptocurrency ETFs experienced net outflows of $405 million in the past week and $5.49 billion over the past month. Even if geopolitical risks temporarily subside, institutional funds have not yet significantly flowed back, and the market remains in a tug-of-war phase of liquidity recovery and high-interest-rate environment.