The European Central Bank suddenly raises interest rates, while the US is playing dead

—Stagflation is coming—can Bitcoin really hedge?

Are you still waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and rescue your position? Europeans are already done waiting.

On June 11, two sets of data:

US May PPI: 6.5% year over year, and a jump of 1.1% month over month—its biggest increase since 2022.

On the same day, initial unemployment claims came in at 229,000, above expectations, reaching a new high since February 2026.

Inflation is surging, while jobs are kneeling. In textbooks, this is called stagflation.

That evening, the European Central Bank announced directly: rate hike! The deposit interest rate moved from 2% to 2.25%, the first time in nearly three years.

—Guess how the market reacted?

It even pushed back the Fed’s rate-hike expectations to January 2027.

January 2027! In other words, Wall Street believes that for the next half year or so, the Fed will do nothing but watch inflation burn.

This is magic realism: Europe is getting battered by inflation and forced to raise rates; the US data is already showing stagflation, yet the market still thinks the Fed will play dead and hide.

Will the Fed follow after the ECB moves first?

Most likely not—at least not within the next six months.

Why? Politics. Haven’t the 2026 midterm elections just passed? No—it’s June 2026; the next major election is still a ways off. But what the Fed fears most right now isn’t inflation—it’s completely killing the economy.

Look at employment: the number of people filing for unemployment benefits is already rising beyond expectations. Add another rate hike, and a wave of layoffs could turn into a tsunami.

So why does the ECB dare? Because inflation in Europe is even fiercer (May CPI at 4.2% is just the US figure—Europe is actually higher), and Europe’s economy is already in ruins; it isn’t afraid of it getting worse.

“Monetary policy in the US and Europe officially diverges—Europe keeps tightening, while the US lies low and pretends to be dead.”

Bitcoin—at last, is it “digital gold” or a “risk asset”?

In stagflation, textbooks say gold rises. But what about Bitcoin? The past two years have shown it tracks the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq tracks liquidity. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates and liquidity doesn’t loosen, Bitcoin is just a sandwich cookie—top layer: inflation compressing valuations; bottom layer: jobs collapsing, and nothing holding it up.

So don’t dream. In a stagflation environment, Bitcoin is neither gold nor tech stocks. It’s the third ghost story.

Bitcoin against inflation? When stagflation arrives, it’s the first to pee right on you.

The only thing that could save it is a sudden shift by the Fed toward rate cuts. But market expectations have already been pushed out to 2027.

Are you willing to wait a year and a half? #我的Gate交易时刻 #美国5月CPI创三年新高 #美伊冲突升级 $BTC $ETH $XAU