SpaceX IPO vs Aramco 2019: An In-Depth Analysis of the Fund Flows and Nasdaq Impact of the Largest IPO in History

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) officially listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, raising approximately $75 billion at an issue price of $135 per share, with a total market capitalization of about $1.77 trillion. This figure surpasses Microsoft (around $1.6 trillion) and Alphabet (around $1.2 trillion), making it the seventh-largest publicly traded company in the United States.

Seven years ago, Saudi Aramco raised about $25.6 billion at a valuation of $1.7 trillion, previously holding the record for the largest IPO in history. In 2014, Alibaba completed a $21.8 billion fundraising at an estimated valuation of about $17.7k, once a benchmark for tech industry IPOs.

However, the market impact after large IPOs is never determined by the fundraising scale of the IPO itself, but by the structure and direction of the inflowing capital. Aramco’s IPO funds mainly came from domestic Saudi sources and sovereign funds, representing an inward-focused “internal digestion”; SpaceX, on the other hand, is directly embedded into the world’s largest tech index system, and within 15 trading days of listing, will trigger mandatory purchases by the NASDAQ 100 passive funds. The two have completely different capital flow structures and their impacts on the NASDAQ and its component stocks are also entirely different.

Aramco 2019: A domestically-focused “localization” IPO

In December 2019, Saudi Aramco listed on the Tadawul Exchange in Saudi Arabia, with an estimated valuation of about $1.7 trillion, selling only 1.5% of the company shares, of which 0.5% was offered to Saudi citizens and residents, and 1% to institutional investors.

In terms of capital composition, only 23% of institutional subscriptions came from non-Saudi investors, with a significant portion from the UAE and Kuwait. The Saudi government agencies themselves subscribed about $2.3 billion, Saudi enterprises took 37.5% of the institutional allotment, and local public and private funds subscribed 26.3%. International investors’ concerns over pricing and corporate governance limited their willingness to participate; Aramco even canceled marketing plans in the US, Canada, and Japan during the later stages of roadshows.

The clear conclusion: Aramco’s IPO proceeds mainly flowed into Saudi sovereign funds and domestic companies, used for Vision 2030 economic transformation projects, with relatively limited impact on cross-market capital flows in global stock markets. As of the time of writing, Aramco’s market value remains around $1.8 trillion, roughly the same as its IPO valuation seven years ago, lacking sustained external capital inflows to push it higher.

Comparing the largest IPOs in history: a three-dimensional scale leap

Dimension 1: Fundraising scale. SpaceX’s approximately $75 billion in base fundraising is nearly three times Aramco’s roughly $25.6 billion and 3.4 times Alibaba’s approximately $21.8 billion, making it the largest single-issue IPO in history. Underwriters also hold a 30-day over-allotment option; if fully exercised, the total issuance could reach about 639 million shares, raising approximately $86.25 billion.

Dimension 2: Valuation multiple. SpaceX’s IPO price-to-sales ratio is about 94x, far higher than Tesla’s current level of around 14x, and significantly exceeds the initial valuation multiples of any trillion-dollar market cap company. This discrepancy is at the core of the valuation divergence between Oppenheimer, which targets a $190 price and expects the market cap to climb to about $2.5 trillion in 12-18 months, and Morningstar, which estimates a fair value of only $780 billion—less than half of the IPO target valuation.

Dimension 3: Circulation structure. After listing, only about 4.2% of SpaceX’s total shares are in circulation, corresponding to a market cap of about $16k. Founder Elon Musk holds about 42% of the shares, but they are locked for 366 days; the remaining approximately 54% is held by VCs, early employees, and internal shareholders, with phased unlocking. This extremely low initial free float compared to Aramco’s 1.5% is scaled up by a factor of three in fundraising, creating a demand-supply pressure in the secondary market that is not comparable in magnitude.

SPCX NASDAQ debut: structural “water pumping” by passive funds

The impact of SpaceX on the NASDAQ hinges on the newly revised index inclusion rules introduced by Nasdaq in March 2026. The new rules allow the top 40 IPO companies by market cap to be quickly included in the NASDAQ 100 within 15 trading days of listing, removing the previous 10% minimum free float requirement, and introducing a cap on the weight of low-float stocks—calculated as three times their actual free float market cap.

Using SpaceX’s approximately $75 billion free float market cap as a baseline, with a 3x cap, the index’s basis for weighting is $225 billion, corresponding to about 0.47%-0.70% of the NASDAQ 100’s weight. The passive funds tracking the NASDAQ 100 total about $6 trillion globally. Based on estimations from Huatai Securities of the size of verifiable index products, the potential passive buy-in could be around $9.1 billion to $11.3 billion; considering broader passive assets, the upper limit could be revised upward to $14 billion to $16 billion.

This passive buy-in of around $10 billion is 1.4 to 2 times the estimated $7 billion in assets of a single QQQ ETF. Passive funds must complete their purchases within the rapid inclusion window—no valuation judgment, no discretion, just execution once the rule takes effect. The key point is that this buy corresponds to roughly 30% of SpaceX’s free float.

But a more covert effect lies in the “water pumping” on the other side. The approximately $600 billion in passive funds tracking the NASDAQ 100 would need to proportionally reduce holdings of all existing component stocks to buy SpaceX. According to estimates from BNP Paribas’ cash trading team, just the inclusion of SpaceX in the NASDAQ 100 could lead to about $8 billion in passive buying in the first month of listing, exerting selling pressure of tens of billions on heavyweight stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. As of the time of writing, QQQ holds about 9.6% of Microsoft, 9.2% of Apple, and 7.5% of Nvidia; after SpaceX’s inclusion, these weights will be passively diluted.

However, this supply-demand imbalance will not last forever. SpaceX’s phased unlocking schedule will gradually release supply: two days after Q2 earnings, locked-in shareholders can sell up to 20%; if the stock price exceeds 30% above the IPO price and certain trading conditions are met, an additional 10% unlock occurs; at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after IPO, each unlocks 7%, totaling 35%; after Q3 earnings, a 28% unlock; and the remaining shares are fully released at 180 days.

In the first half, the circulating supply is locked, and passive buying concentrates; in the second half, the shares are gradually released, with each earnings report acting as a test of selling pressure. The design of the timeline has an inherent hedge: by mid-December, when the NASDAQ 100 rebalances annually, most insiders’ shares will have been gradually unlocked, significantly increasing the free float. At that point, the index will likely raise SpaceX’s weight, prompting passive funds to buy again—effectively a systemic buy support after months of insider selling.

Cross-asset allocation: participation methods

After understanding this macro framework, investors face the practical question: how, through what channels, to participate in this historic event?

Gate officially launched real stock trading services on June 1, 2026, becoming one of the first industry platforms to directly connect to the US stock market within a crypto trading environment. As of June 2026, Gate TradFi has listed over 10,000 real stocks and ETFs, covering NYSE, Nasdaq, and other major US securities exchanges.

Compared to traditional US stock brokers, Gate’s stock trading offers three differentiated features: first, settlement in USDT with the entire process completed within seconds; second, a minimum purchase of 0.01 shares, allowing investment in US stocks starting at about $1; third, execution through a compliant broker-dealer licensed in the US, Alpaca, with assets independently custodied via DTC and protected under SIPC. In terms of fees, Gate’s spot stock trading rates can be as low as 0.023%, with no holding fees, platform fees, commissions, or hidden charges.

Gate also launched the “Direct IPO” service, with SpaceX as the first offering. Users can submit subscription applications before the company’s official listing, and after listing, allocated shares are directly credited to their Gate stock account, completing a one-stop process from IPO subscription to secondary trading. The current SpaceX direct IPO supports USDT participation, with a minimum subscription of 100 USDT and a maximum of 500,000 USDT. The platform uses a weighted allocation mechanism: earlier and longer lock-up subscriptions have higher chances of favorable allotment.

For users who did not participate in IPO subscriptions, after SPCX’s listing on NASDAQ, they can directly buy and sell SpaceX’s real stock on Gate’s stock market in USDT, with the same operational process as trading other US stocks.

Conclusion

The scale of SpaceX’s IPO has surpassed the combined IPO volumes of Aramco and Alibaba, but its true market impact does not depend on the headline of raising $75 billion on the first day. Instead, it hinges on the post-listing capital flows and the game of supply and demand.

In terms of capital flow, Aramco’s IPO funds mainly formed an inward closed loop, with limited impact on cross-market global stock flows; SpaceX’s IPO funds are directly embedded into the world’s largest tech index system, triggering about $10 billion in passive buy-in within 15 trading days. This is not a “one-time event,” but a structural reorganization of index weights. A specific, verifiable micro-impact is that passive funds tracking the NASDAQ 100 must reduce holdings of existing component stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia proportionally to buy SpaceX. As of the writing, this rebalancing has not yet been completed, and the scale of the impact will gradually become clear over the next 15 trading days.

Against this backdrop, investors’ choices are not only “whether to buy SPCX,” but also “through what channels and at what cost to execute the trade.” Gate’s stock trading platform provides a compliant access route: trading US stocks directly with USDT without currency exchange, with a low threshold of 0.01 shares, a minimum fee rate of 0.023%, and a full coverage of the entire process from IPO subscription to secondary trading via the direct IPO feature. These tools are valuable not only for execution but also for enabling crypto market users to participate in this potentially transformative reallocation of NASDAQ weights.