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SpaceX Going Public Soon: $1.77 Trillion Valuation Sparks Disagreement, Market Bets on First Day Potentially Surging Past $2 Trillion+
• The bullish view believes that driven by FOMO sentiment, small circulating supply structure, and expectations of NASDAQ index inclusion, SpaceX has significant upside potential on its first trading day, with a market cap possibly hitting the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion range. Predictive market data shows that traders expect a high probability of its first-day market cap surpassing $2 trillion.
Some investment banks, such as Oppenheimer, have given a "beat the market" rating and set a target price of $190, implying over 40% upside from the IPO price. Reasons include Starlink’s commercialization potential, vertical integration capabilities, and long-term space and AI market expansion logic. Meanwhile, retail investors and Musk supporters are highly enthusiastic, viewing it as a "generational investment opportunity," with strong retail subscription demand and some channels experiencing oversubscription.
• The cautious camp points out that the valuation has already significantly overestimated future growth expectations. Institutions like Morningstar believe its reasonable valuation is well below the IPO price, with some models estimating only about $780 billion; academic valuations are also generally below current pricing levels. Market concerns focus on its long-term growth relying on unverified technological paths and ongoing high capital expenditure.
Additionally, analysts warn that historically, large IPOs often experience overheating on the first day and then underperform the market over the long term. The current structural low float may amplify volatility risks.
Overall, SpaceX’s first-day trading is highly likely to experience sharp fluctuations driven by sentiment and liquidity, but its medium- to long-term performance will still depend on profit realization ability and technological validation. The market generally recommends short-term trading based on sentiment, with a wait-and-see approach for fundamentals to become clearer in the long run.