1. Current Price and Pattern (June 12, 2026, 12:07 UTC+8)

• Current Price: $1,675 (24h +2.4%)

• Intraday Range: $1,628 (low) — $1,678 (high)

• Core Qualitative: Daily chart shows a strong bearish trend, 4-hour oversold rebound correction, 15-minute oscillation leaning bullish; rebound = shorting opportunity, not a reversal
2. Key Price Levels (ETH/USDT Contract)

Support (Bull/Bear Defense)

• Strong Support: $1,580–$1,600 (key bottom in this cycle, deep probe if broken to $1,505)

• First Support: $1,630–$1,640 (short-term dividing line, end of rebound if broken)

• Second Support: $1,650 (intraday correction support, bullish/weak line)

Resistance (Partial Shorting Zone)

• First Resistance: $1,690–$1,700 (intraday high + supply zone, strong pressure)

• Second Resistance: $1,720–$1,730 (June 8 key resistance, bull/bear dividing line)

• Strong Resistance: $1,780–$1,800 (daily MA50, medium-term bearish line)
3. Technical Overview

Daily Chart (Trend: Bearish Dominance)

• Moving Averages: Price below MA50/100/200, long-term bearish alignment

• RSI: 53.9 (neutral, slight rebound after oversold, no reversal signal)

• MACD: Converging green bars below zero line, weakening bearish momentum, no golden cross

• Conclusion: Main bearish trend remains, rebound is a shorting opportunity

4-hour Chart (Structure: Oversold Rebound)

• Pattern: Bottoming near $1,600, V-shaped rebound, continuous bullish attack

• RSI: 53 (neutral leaning bullish, no overbought)

• MACD: Bullish divergence + golden cross, short-term bullish momentum strengthening

• Conclusion: Repair rebound, limited space, mainly high-level shorting

15-minute Chart (Rhythm: Oscillation Slightly Bullish)

• Structure: Upward channel, higher highs and higher lows

• Volume: Rising to high, then decreasing, volume during pullback steady, insufficient momentum for chasing high

• Conclusion: Short-term bullish, prone to pullback at high levels, avoid chasing highs
4. Contract Strategy (Short-term + Mid-term, with Stop Loss)

Short-term (1–4 hours, light position)

• Long Position: $1,640–$1,650, light position

◦ Stop Loss: $1,625

◦ Target: $1,680–$1,690 (reduce half at target price)

• Short Position (Core): $1,690–$1,700, light position

◦ Stop Loss: $1,715

◦ Target: $1,650–$1,630 (break below to $1,590)

Mid-term (1–3 days, scaled entries)

• Short Position: $1,720–$1,730, scale into short

◦ Stop Loss: $1,760

◦ Target: $1,600–$1,580 (ultimate bottom zone)
5. Intraday Execution Points

1. Priority of Direction: Mainly high-level shorts, secondary longs; do not chase highs, short on rebound confirmation

2. Position Size: Short-term ≤20%, mid-term ≤15%; strict stop loss, no holding through losses

3. Key Signals:

◦ Stabilize above $1,730: Short-term strength, pause shorts, observe

◦ Break below $1,630: Rebound ends, bearish resumes, add to short positions
6. Risk Warning

• Linkage Risk: BTC dominates the market, ETH/SOL move synchronously, high risk of sudden spikes

• Volume Risk: Insufficient rebound volume, high probability of a second bottom

• News Risk: Sudden Fed/ETF data releases, rapid market reversal
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