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Bitcoin Demand Drops to a New Level, Occurring 3 Times Since 2019

Bitcoin demand
BTCUSD
has fallen to a level that has only happened three times since 2019, according to CryptoQuant data. The combined growth of spot and perpetual futures demand over 30 days has plummeted to nearly minus 650,000 BTC.

Separate measurement methods from Capriole Investments also show the same picture. Apparent Demand is currently in the lowest quartile of the past four years, while BTC is trading around US$62,800.

CryptoQuant Looks at Rare Bitcoin Demand Contraction

There are only two similar readings on the chart. Both appeared before the COVID crash in early 2020 and during the 2022 bear market.

This downward structure is as significant as the depth of the decline itself. Both spot and perpetual futures demand are decreasing. So, weakness isn’t just from leverage speculation; this has been highlighted in CryptoQuant’s previous warnings about demand imbalance.

In a QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst MoneroDV_ assessed that this reading signals the beginning of an unstable phase, not the end of a correction. He wrote on CryptoQuant:

“The most likely path is the start of increased volatility, followed by a ‘numb’ price phase: weak momentum, suppressed activity, and prolonged sideways price movement. That phase could be psychologically more damaging than the price decline itself.”

Past history provides important details. The minus 650,000 BTC zone actually marks the start of an unstable phase, not the final bottom. Recovery toward higher support zones has previously aligned with bottoms in March 2020 and late 2022. If a similar recovery occurs, it would be the first signal of a trend reversal.

Capriole Data Confirms Weakness but Has Important Notes

Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, highlighted a second bearish signal this week. Apparent Demand measures whether new buying can absorb the issuance of new coins and the old supply re-entering circulation.

This method now shows a net balance of minus 8,761 BTC. That value is in the bottom 2.6% of the past four years. Meanwhile, the 30-day trend remains negative, indicating weakness for the next 7 to 30 days. Edwards wrote on X:

“Wow. Bitcoin rarely posts positive performance when Apparent Demand drops.”

However, this indicator has an important caveat that makes the bearish case less straightforward. Capriole’s analysis notes that the predictive statistics directly from this metric are weak, with near-zero forward correlation.

This reading only serves as an additional bearish signal, not a primary price driver. This distinction is what sets Capriole’s metric apart from CryptoQuant’s sharper signals, which are a main topic of debate in the current bear market.

BTC Price Prediction Depends on US$59,000 Support

BTC is trading around US$62,833 at the time of this article’s publication, up 2.7% in the last 24 hours, according to market data. Its price remains about 50% below the cycle peak above US$120,000 that occurred at the end of 2025.

Continuous outflows from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) throughout May and June have removed the main structural buying source. With demand growth very negative, fewer buyers are willing to step in if selling continues.

The June low around US$59,000 is the current main support, about 6% below the current price. If this support breaks, the price could head toward the realized price around US$53,600, roughly 15% below spot. Previous research identified that area as a historical floor.

On the other hand, if BTC manages to close daily above US$66,000, the bearish case weakens and demand is considered to be starting to recover. ETF inflow recovery remains the most likely trigger for this scenario.

Until then, both data points seem aligned. BTC needs to hold at US$59,000 during the ‘numb’ phase or retest the last seen level at the start of the cycle.