$SPCX 1.77 Trillion Valuation Blows Up Wall Street: Is Elon Musk’s Space Dream or an Investors’ Nightmare?

When numbers break free from gravity, is the $135 bet on the future—or on a bubble?

The world’s largest IPO ignites the capital markets: SpaceX priced shares at $135 each, raised $75 billion, and saw its valuation surge to $1.77 trillion. Elon Musk’s personal wealth is set to jump by $220 billion, putting him on track to become the world’s first trillionaire. Frenzied capital is rushing to pile in—subscription multiples have already reached 4x—but Wall Street has now been completely split.

Bulls are shouting: you’re buying monopoly rights in the space and AI era. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and ARK believe traditional valuation frameworks have failed. Backed by Starlink, low-cost rockets, and vertical integration, SpaceX has built a moat that is hard to replicate. In 2025, revenue is projected to be $18.7 billion, with Starlink contributing more than 60% of profits; by 2030, revenue could exceed $470 billion. “Wood’s” estimate puts the forward “fair” valuation as high as $3.1 trillion.

Bears warn: the valuation is severely overextended, and the bubble is shocking. Morningstar’s DCF model estimates true fair value at just $780 billion—less than half of the IPO valuation; Trefis’ target price is only $79. PitchBook points out that the current price has already reached the top end of the reasonable range. Such a valuation requires an average annual growth rate of over 50% for the next decade—an almost impossible feat. In addition, there are risks galore, including Elon Musk’s personal premium, weak internal controls, selling pressure from lock-up expirations, fundraising to repay debt, and more.

No right or wrong between bulls and bears—only a difference in cognition: betting on the era’s dividends, or betting on a return to bubble reality?

A $135-per-share IPO at a sky-high price—you dare to follow it? Elon Musk’s additional $220 billion in net worth—real strength, or illusion? The answer may only be time. But time never waits.

‍#SpaceX认购规模超2500亿美元