BTC/ETH Review + Market Outlook

Analysis Time: June 12, 2026, 10:05
Current Prices: BTC 63,438 | ETH 1,667

I. Previous Forecast Review

1. Core Logic Validation

- BTC: Previously predicted based on the 59,130 low point, a oversold correction occurred, with a rebound pressure zone between 61,000-63,500. The current high reached 64,046, fully hitting above the medium-term strong resistance; subsequent signals indicate the rebound is merely a correction of oversold sentiment. When reaching pressure levels, partial profit-taking is advised. The current price has fallen back from the high to 63,438, confirming the pressure level precisely. Users chasing longs at high levels are now trapped.
- ETH: Bottomed at 1505, starting a correction, with pressure zone between 1640-1680. The high of 1714 touched the upper band resistance and then fell back. The current price of 1667 is within the pressure zone, fully validating the logic of rebound being capped and falling back.
- Risk control discipline validation: Previously emphasized "no chasing longs at high levels, support level positioning, cut losses below the vital line." During this decline, positions not reduced above 63,000 have mostly given back profits, confirming that greed at high levels can turn unrealized gains into losses.

II. Current Multi-Cycle Market Breakdown

1. BTC Market Structure

- Weekly: Still in a high-level decline trend, with the Bollinger middle band at 71,509 as a long-term strong resistance, and support at 60,624 (Bollinger lower band). The medium-term correction channel is not finished.
- Daily: Price broke below the Bollinger middle band at 68,213, currently between the middle and lower bands, dominated by a bearish trend. Short-term rebounds are just corrections within the downtrend. Resistance at 65,000, support at 59,130-58,400.
- 4-hour: Bollinger bands opening downward, price rebounded near the middle band, with resistance at 64,038 (upper band) and support at 60,874 (lower band). Overbought indicators suggest a pullback is needed.
- 1-hour: MACD golden cross recovery, price operating along the Bollinger upper band, resistance at 63,902, support at 62,524. Rebound momentum gradually weakening.

2. ETH Market Structure

- Weekly: Bollinger opening downward, price broke below the lower band at 1,698, with a clear bearish trend. Support at 1,385-1,505, resistance at 2,080 (middle band).
- Daily: Broke below the lower band at 1,469, currently near the lower band, bearish dominance. Resistance at 1,847 (middle band), support at 1,505-1,480.
- 4-hour: Bollinger bands opening downward, rebound near the middle band, resistance at 1,694 (upper band), support at 1,614 (lower band). Rebound zone is 1,660-1,680.
- 1-hour: MACD golden cross recovery, rebound near the upper band, resistance at 1,691, support at 1,637. Rebound height is limited.

III. Market Outlook (Short-term 12-48 hours | Mid-term 3-10 days)

1. Short-term Market Path

- BTC: Weakening from support at 62,500-62,800, with a small-volume rebound targeting 63,800-64,000, with strong resistance at 64,500. The rebound shows weakness, leading to a second test of support at 61,000-60,800, with an extreme possibility of testing the key support at 59,130.
- ETH: Slight correction supported by 1,630-1,640, with a rebound to 1,680-1,690 encountering resistance and falling back. Support at 1,610-1,600. If broken, further decline to 1,550-1,505.

2. Two Scenario Branches

Scenario 1: Oscillation Bottoming (Higher Probability)

- BTC: Rebound faces resistance and falls back but holds support at 60,800, maintaining a wide range of 60,000-64,000, awaiting new catalysts.
- ETH: Holds support at 1,600, maintains oscillation between 1,550-1,680, mainly trading high and low, avoiding a one-sided bullish view.

Scenario 2: Breakdown and Weakening

- BTC: Very weak rebound, directly breaks below 60,800 with increased volume, opening deeper downside space, targeting 59,130 support, with potential further decline to 58,400, possibly reaching 57,000 in extreme cases.
- ETH: Breaks below 1,600 support, drops to 1,550-1,505, and if below 1,505, further down to 1,480, with additional support at 1,380-1,400.

IV. Action Plans for Different Groups

1. Holders of Spot Positions

- BTC: Partially reduce positions at 63,800-64,000, lowering average cost, with a stop-loss at 60,000. If broken, clear short-term positions unconditionally.
- ETH: Take profits at 1,680-1,690, with stop-loss at 1,600. Stop all new entries if support at 1,600 is broken.
- Position Management: Keep total holdings within 60%, reserving 40% cash for potential second bottom.

2. Wait-and-See Traders

- Do not chase the bottom at current prices. Wait for two entry signals:
1. Support pullback entries: BTC at 60,800-61,200, ETH at 1,550-1,600, with two-layer light positions.
2. Volume breakout above 64,500 BTC and 1,690 ETH, confirming continuation of rebound before small entries.
- Avoid chasing highs; remain on the sidelines without confirmed support.

3. Short-term Contract Traders

- Main strategy: Short on rebounds facing resistance, only lightly trade small rebounds during oversold conditions with strict stop-loss.
- BTC short: Entry at 63,800-64,000, stop-loss at 64,500, take profit at 61,000.
- ETH short: Entry at 1,680-1,690, stop-loss at 1,720, take profit at 1,610.
- Short-term longs: Only small positions after support at 60,800 BTC and 1,600 ETH stabilize, with stop-loss at 60,000 BTC and 1,580 ETH. Exit all longs at 63,500/1,680, avoiding long-term holding.

V. Key Risk Alerts

1. The current decline proves the rebound is only a short-term sentiment correction; the larger cycle trend has not reversed. Do not mistake this for the end of the bear market and go all-in.
2. BTC is influenced by macro US stocks and crypto sector news, prone to sudden spikes. Contracts without stop-loss can lead to large losses.
3. 58,400 BTC is the life line of this correction. If broken, switch to full risk aversion, pause all new positions, and wait for bottom confirmation.