#Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX SpaceX hasn't opened for trading yet, but the market has already priced in $165! Tonight, SPCX will list—go short or go long, all in!

Many people think SpaceX is just selling rockets, but actually, SpaceX is selling something else: orbital transportation, satellite internet, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and future lunar logistics networks. This is the first time the capital market has put the "space economy operating system" on an exchange.
In fact, Wall Street is the first to price future lunar bases, Mars colonization, orbital data centers, and AI infrastructure. Just as the world waits for SpaceX to ring the Nasdaq bell, a mysterious account called "wenyu8888888" suddenly bets all $5.7 million on the table. Not going long, but going all-in short. The shorts believe that $17.5 trillion is the price paid in advance for 2032; the longs believe that once Starship succeeds, SpaceX in 2032 cannot be valued with today’s business model.
Based on publicly available information, SpaceX’s IPO subscription multiple is about 4 times, making it a historically hot IPO, but not reaching some market rumors of 10 or 20 times. Some jokingly call it the biggest "fundraising case" in history! Although the final IPO price was set at $135, the market the night before already provided a higher price anchor—$165! This figure is not from the company’s official guidance but verified by Wall Street analyst target prices and off-market trading prices.
Renowned tech analyst Pierre Ferragu gave a target price of $165, with some institutions even seeing $190. On prediction markets and derivatives trading platforms, SpaceX-related contracts traded between $163 and $167 at times.
Meanwhile, the IPO subscription exceeded four times the offering size, showing strong institutional demand. Before SpaceX officially listed, many asset management firms had already launched related investment and leveraged products, even plans for 2x long SpaceX ETFs. Such phenomena are rare in IPO history, indicating that Wall Street is already building a complete investment ecosystem around SpaceX.
Historically, oversubscription of over 4x combined with leveraged positioning often signals market expectations of significant first-day premium potential. Therefore, investors’ focus has shifted from whether $135 is expensive to whether SpaceX can break through $160 and challenge higher valuations. At $165, the company’s market cap would surpass $2 trillion. The capital market’s bets are no longer just on rocket launches but also on Starlink’s global communication network, orbital AI infrastructure, and the lunar and Martian economies enabled by Starship.
In a sense, $135 is the issuance price set by investment banks, while $165 is the market’s first public pricing of the future space infrastructure era.
SpaceX’s IPO priced at $135, with an estimated valuation of about $1.75 trillion, where the key variable isn’t fundamentals but extremely low free float (about 4.3%). About 15 trading days after listing, a critical milestone occurs: on July 7, Nasdaq 100 will be officially included, along with CRSP/FTSE indices, which will require passive funds to adjust their holdings based on free float, creating an $80–$17.5k buy-in impact. With the free float locked, this phase theoretically creates a "chips vacuum + passive fund squeeze," amplifying short-term price elasticity.
The second key milestone is around late July (July 22 or 29), two days after Q2 earnings, triggering the first about 30% early shareholder lock-up release. Since Musk himself owns about half and has a one-year lock-up period, actual tradable shares are compressed to about 10–15%. This stage shifts the market from "pure buy-driven" to "marginal supply-demand rebalancing," with increased volatility. These two milestones essentially form a time arbitrage structure of "passive index buying → liquidity vacuum → lock-up impact," rather than traditional fundamental valuation models.

Tonight, go short or go long? What’s your take?