Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action, a shallow analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is experiencing a critical turning point. After a panic plunge to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred from June 6–8, reaching a high of 64,184. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" from 63,050 straight down to 60,740, and in the early morning of June 10, continued decline to 60,727 (new low since the rebound), but then a shocking V-shaped rebound to 62,794 in the afternoon. On June 11, a more vigorous upward attack appeared. The morning opened at 61,460 and steadily climbed, with volume breakthroughs at 61,823 (00:15), 62,116 (01:15), 62,607 (03:45), 62,799 (06:15), 62,878 (08:15), 63,067 (10:45). In the afternoon, consolidation in the 62,500–63,000 range, a shocking surge from 62,975 to 63,259 at 17:30, a high of 63,833 at 19:30, and a slight pullback to 63,541 at close.
Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the V-shaped reversal on June 10–11 plus the strong upward attack indicates bullish forces are recovering.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The trend on June 11 is a classic bullish pattern of "steady advance + explosive close." Early in the day, short-term lows moved up from 61,460 (00:00) to 61,927 (02:30), 62,505 (04:00), 62,480 (06:00), 62,744 (09:00), 62,662 (14:45), 62,297 (17:00). Short-term highs moved from 61,914 (00:15) to 62,294 (01:30), 62,712 (03:45), 63,067 (10:45), 63,154 (11:00), 63,833 (19:30). Highs and lows are both moving upward, with the upward speed sharply increasing toward the close, indicating a steep rise.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward but the downward momentum is significantly weakening, and the short-term trend is sharply rising. The upward attack on June 11 has already broken above the pre-crash opening zone of 63,050 from June 9, returning the market to a bullish state. The key resistance above is 64,000–64,500 (near the June 8 high of 64,184). If the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term downtrend is confirmed to reverse; if the rebound is blocked at 64,000 and falls back below 62,500, the rebound ends and the downtrend continues, targeting the 60,727–59,095 range.
2. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Pattern structure: On the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.
Top fractals: appear at 64,184 (June 8 15:00), 63,898 (June 5 00:30), 63,487 (June 9 05:30), 63,395 (June 9 06:15), 62,882 (June 9 08:00), 62,794 (June 10 15:45), 62,343 (June 10 16:30), 62,308 (June 10 17:00), 63,067 (June 11 10:45), 63,154 (June 11 11:00), 63,196 (June 11 11:30), 63,833 (June 11 19:30). The top fractals on June 11 show a significant upward shift from the 62,500 range to 63,500–64,000, indicating bullish strength is recovering.
Bottom fractals: appear at 59,095 (June 5 18:45), 59,460 (June 6 04:15), 60,708 (June 7 00:45), 60,740 (June 9 16:30), 60,727 (June 10 09:00), 61,120 (June 10 05:00), 61,179 (June 10 04:30), 61,460 (June 11 00:00), 61,927 (June 11 02:30), 62,505 (June 11 04:00), 62,480 (June 11 06:00), 62,744 (June 11 09:00), 62,662 (June 11 14:45), 62,297 (June 11 17:00). The bottom fractals on June 11 show a significant upward shift from the 60,500 range to 62,000–62,500, indicating very strong bullish absorption.
Bi (stroke) and line segments: From the bottom fractal at 60,727 to the top fractal at 62,794 (June 10 15:45), forms an upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,067. Then from 62,794 top to 61,832 bottom (June 10 17:15), forms a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 962, very weak. Next, from 61,832 bottom to 63,833 top (June 11 19:30), forms a very strong upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,001, roughly equal in strength to the previous upward stroke (+2,067), showing very strong and sustained bullish power.
Central zone: In the 62,000–64,000 range, from June 7–11, K-lines are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone in the Chan Theory sense. The current price of 63,541 is inside the central zone, leaning towards the upper edge, indicating a construction phase. In the 60,500–62,000 range, dense K-line interactions on June 9–10 have formed a downward central zone, but the V-shaped rebound on June 10 afternoon plus the strong attack on June 11 have fully broken through this zone, entering an accelerated upward phase.
Chan conclusion: The upward strokes (+2,067 and +2,001) are extremely strong, while the downward stroke (-962) is weakening significantly, indicating bulls are fully dominant. Currently, the market is in a high-level oscillation after the upward extension, with no sign of ending. Short-term focus: whether 63,833 can form an effective top fractal. If formed, the upward stroke may end; if the price directly breaks through 64,000, the upward stroke extends, targeting 65,000–66,000 with high risk.
3. Elliott Wave Theory (Wave Theory)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend since the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): from 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Rebound): from 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): from 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Rebound): from 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): from 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
A wave (rebound): from 59,095 up to 64,184 (June 8 15:00), about +5,089.
B wave (correction): from 64,184 down to 60,727 (June 10 09:00), about -3,457. B wave correction is about 67.9% of A wave, a typical deep correction.
C wave (expansion): from 60,727 up to 63,833 (June 11 19:30), about +3,106. The current C wave is about 61% of A wave; if C equals A, target is about 65,800–66,000; if C is 1.618 times A, target is about 67,500–68,000.
Wave conclusion: Currently in the ABC rebound C wave expansion phase. C wave is very strong, and B wave has not broken the starting point of A wave at 59,095, which is a positive signal. If C wave can break 64,000 and continue upward, the rebound target is 65,000–67,000; if C wave is blocked near 64,000 and falls below 62,500, then C wave fails and a downward impulsive wave begins.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: On June 11, extremely positive. During the steady rise in the morning, volume gradually increased; during the consolidation in the afternoon, volume shrank; during the explosive surge at the close, huge volume appeared. Dense volume-increasing candles with rising volume indicate very strong bullish forces.
Key volume-price nodes:
- 00:15 on June 11: a volume-increasing bullish candle (volume 172 million), from 61,659 to 61,824, body 165, confirming early bullish attack.
- 01:00: a huge volume bullish candle (volume 383 million), from 61,769 to 61,976, body 207, confirming strong bullish force.
- 03:45: a volume-increasing bullish candle (volume 500 million), from 62,292 to 62,607, body 315, confirming continued afternoon bullish attack.
- 06:15: a huge volume bullish candle (volume 446 million), from 62,718 to 62,800, body 82, confirming sustained bullish strength.
- 10:45: a volume-increasing bullish candle (volume 27 million), from 62,854 to 63,067, body 213, confirming bullish explosion.
- 17:30: a shocking huge volume bullish candle (volume 1.35B), from 62,975 to 63,259, body 284, confirming the bullish force at the close, with panic buying concentrated.
- 17:45: a huge volume bullish candle (volume 603 million), from 63,267 to 63,556, confirming continued bullish strength.
- 19:30: a volume-increasing bullish candle (volume 225 million), from 63,528 to 63,833, confirming bullish force reaching its peak.
Recent 10 x 15-minute candles: from 63,570 oscillating back to 63,541, volume shows decreasing consolidation, market waiting in the 63,300–63,600 range for direction.
Volume-price conclusion: During the June 11 surge, massive volume supported the move, indicating very strong bullish forces. The high-level shrinking volume consolidation suggests both bulls and bears are resting. Key observation points: if a pullback to 63,000–62,500 shows decreasing volume and stops falling, C wave continues; if volume increases below 62,000, C wave fails.
5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The recent 3 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 61,684. This is the most densely traded area, forming the current key value central zone. The current price of 63,541 is far above POC, showing a positive divergence between market value and actual price, with bulls dominating.
Current position analysis: Price at 63,541 is about 1,857 above POC, in the upper part of the value area, with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking above POC indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, and the market is shifting from a discounted to a premium state. The current price is moving toward higher value zones, but faces significant resistance near 64,000.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 63,500–64,000: resistance HVN (formed after the June 8 and June 11 surges, currently creating resistance)
- 62,000–63,000: core support HVN (dense trading zone on June 11, current support)
- 60,500–61,500: lower support HVN (massive absorption zone after June 10 plunge)
- 59,000–60,000: strong support HVN (massive absorption zone after June 5 plunge)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the June 11 17:30 surge, Delta sharply turned positive (+3 billion level), confirming active buying dominance. During the late surge at 19:30, Delta again turned sharply positive (+1 billion), confirming extreme active buying at the close. Currently, Delta MA12 has risen from negative to deep positive, indicating very strong buying power and weakened selling power.
Order flow conclusion: Price breaking above POC 61,684 indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, market in a premium state. The resistance at 64,000 and 64,500 HVNs can be tested; if Delta remains positive and volume breaks through these levels, target is 65,000. If Delta stays negative and price falls below 62,500, C wave fails.
6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and resistance levels:
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 64,184 (June 8 rebound high)
- Key resistance: 64,000 (psychological level), 63,833 (June 11 rebound high), 63,500 (psychological level)
- Key support: 63,000 (psychological level), 62,500 (lower boundary of consolidation on June 11), 62,000 (psychological level), 61,500 (early June 11 low), 60,727 (June 10 plunge low), 59,095 (June 5 plunge low)
K-line patterns:
- June 11 17:30: a large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 284, no lower shadow), from 62,975 to 63,259, showing bullish explosion, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
- June 11 17:45: a large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 289), from 63,267 to 63,556, bullish force continues.
- June 11 19:30: a large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 305), from 63,528 to 63,833, bullish force peaks.
- June 11 19:45: a bearish candle with long upper shadow (body -72), from 63,630 to 63,561, indicating selling pressure near 63,833, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: running in a steep upward channel (connecting 60,727, 62,297, 63,833)
- Medium-term: The downtrend since May 10’s high of 82,448 is experiencing a critical turning point, with a new upward trend forming.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is in a high-level oscillation after a surge, with 64,000 as the key dividing line: a break confirms an uptrend targeting 65,000–66,000; a rejection tests support at 63,000–62,500.
Overall assessment: Dow signals the main trend remains downward but with weakening downward momentum; short-term is sharply rising, with key levels at 64,000 (up) and 62,500 (down). Chan shows very strong upward strokes (+2,067 and +2,001) and weakening downward strokes (-962), currently in a high-level oscillation after extension. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline, with ABC rebound and C wave unfolding (+3,106), targeting 65,000–67,000. Volume-price features show massive volume support during the surge plus a "shooting star" warning. Order flow indicates POC at 61,684, with price above POC in a premium zone, and deep positive Delta MA12. Price action shows "bullish engulfing" + "shooting star" patterns, short-term bullish bias but heavy resistance at 64,000.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price shows decreasing volume and halts at 62,500–63,000 with bottom fractal and positive Delta, consider going long with target 64,000 → 65,000, stop loss 61,800.
- Bearish scenario: If rebound reaches 64,000–64,500 with top fractal and volume decline, confirming C wave failure and start of downward impulsive wave, consider shorting with target 62,500 → 61,000, stop loss 64,800.
Current state: At 63,541, in a high-level oscillation after a surge, with short-term bias to the upside but cautious of 64,000 resistance. Wait for a pullback to 62,500–63,000 to confirm support before going long, or wait for a break above 64,500 to confirm trend reversal before chasing the rally.