$SPCX Epic IPO explosion! $17.7 trillion valuation, Wall Street is completely divided

The world's largest IPO lands with a bang! SpaceX sets the offering price at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, with an overall valuation reaching $1.77 trillion. This listing will boost Musk's net worth by $220 billion, potentially making him the world's first trillionaire.
Beneath the dazzling wealth creation myth, controversy in the capital markets is at an all-time high. All institutions recognize SpaceX as a top global leader in commercial spaceflight, but opinions on its sky-high valuation are polarized, with bulls and bears engaging in a top-tier Wall Street showdown. Despite ongoing debates, the IPO subscription multiple has reached 4 times, and investor enthusiasm remains high.
✅ Bulls: Buying at $135 means monopolizing the space and AI era. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and ARK agree that SpaceX cannot be valued using traditional aerospace metrics. Relying on Starlink satellite internet, low-cost rocket launches, and a vertically integrated exclusive model, the company has built industry barriers that are difficult to replicate, making it a core player in global space infrastructure.
Fundamentals are already in place, with projected revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, with over 60% of profits coming from Starlink. Institutions forecast that by 2030, revenue could surpass $470 billion, with AI becoming the main growth engine; Ark Invest's team estimates that its long-term fair value could reach as high as $3.1 trillion, indicating long-term upside potential at current prices.
❌ Bears: Valuation is severely overextended, with bubble risks. Bear institutions openly state that the $1.77 trillion valuation has front-loaded growth for the next decades. Morningstar's DCF model estimates its true fair value at only $780 billion, less than half of the IPO valuation; Trefis's target price is just $79, significantly below the offering price.
PitchBook notes that current prices have already reached the upper limit of reasonable valuation ranges, with no safety margin. Some institutions warn that such a valuation requires the company to achieve an average annual growth rate of over 50% over the next ten years, which is nearly impossible. There are also multiple risks, including Musk's personal premium being too high, weak internal controls, shareholder lock-up pressures, and funds possibly being used for debt repayment.
The core summary is that bulls and bears are not necessarily right or wrong—it's a matter of differing perceptions: bulls bet on the long-term monopoly value driven by space and AI dividends; bears focus on fundamentals, betting on valuation bubbles to burst.
Would you dare to participate in this $135 IPO? Musk's additional $220 billion net worth—does it reflect real strength or bubble inflation?