Bitcoin around Monday, experienced a 1-hour level rebound, and although this 1-hour rebound reached our expected target range of 64,000 to 65,000, the trend remains weak, failing to reach near 65,000. In the following days, Bitcoin declined again, forming a new 1-hour level decline.

Yesterday, I was worried that the CPI data would exceed expectations, and the market might plunge sharply. However, despite the negative news of rising CPI data and the renewed conflict between the US and Iran, Bitcoin did not quickly fall below 59,000. With multiple negative factors stacking up and a bearish trend, it still couldn't make new lows. This indicates a certain degree of strength; the second dip did not create a new low, and there is a high probability that it is forming a counter-move, a 4-hour level rebound in the opposite direction.

If Bitcoin re-breaks above 64,200, it can confirm that a 4-hour level rebound has started, with a short-term target around 68,000.

4-hour cycle main direction: The first 4-hour decline within the daily downtrend may be ending, potentially leading to a second 4-hour level rebound.

1-hour cycle direction: Currently in the third 1-hour level rebound.

The 4-hour decline from 82,900 to 59,000 may be ending, and in the short term, it might be a rebound targeting the first decline, i.e., a second 4-hour level rebound. The strength of the rebound can vary: a weaker 4-hour rebound might only reach 65,500 to 68,400, while a stronger rebound could break through to 71,000 to 74,000. The strength needs to be observed as it develops; a confirmed sign of a 4-hour rebound is Bitcoin breaking above 64,200 again. If it falls back below 60,000, it indicates the rebound has ended or the 4-hour rebound hasn't fully developed, and the price will continue to decline.

The current expectation for the 1-hour cycle is that the third 1-hour rebound is underway. The target for this rebound should be to break above 64,200 and reach around 65,500. Falling back below 61,300 would signal the end of the 1-hour rebound. On the 15-minute level, it appears to be in the third 15-minute rebound within the 1-hour rebound. The initial goal is to see if this 15-minute rebound can go above 64,000. Subsequent movements are expected to include a fourth 15-minute pullback and a fifth 15-minute rebound.

Short-term, ETH is slightly stronger than Bitcoin because its second dip was shallower and did not break below 1,600. Currently, focus is on the third 1-hour rebound, which has only completed the first 15-minute rebound so far. If ETH can break above 1,670, it should confirm the start of a 1-hour rebound, with targets above 1,720. There will also be a second 15-minute pullback and a third 15-minute rebound within this cycle. If ETH can break through the 1,750 resistance, the overall 4-hour rebound could reach between 1,850 and 1,900. Falling back below 1,610 would indicate the rebound has ended.

BTC1.10%

ETH3.34%

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