The pain from 16 years ago—South Africa missed a decisive finish. Can they get revenge this time?

In the opening match of the 2010 South Africa World Cup, it was an eternal regret for South African fans. Back then, Shabalala gave South Africa the lead, and Mexican veteran Max leveled the score. In the 90th minute, South African player Mthethwa had a chance to score the winning goal—his shot struck the goalpost and bounced out, and South Africa ultimately failed to win the match. Even worse, although South Africa beat France 2-1 in their final group-stage match, they were eliminated due to an inferior goal difference, becoming the first host nation in World Cup history to be knocked out at the group stage.

Sixteen years have passed, and South Africa have finally returned to the World Cup. This time, their opponent is again Mexico—only this time, Mexico are the hosts. Ahead of the match, South Africa’s head coach Broos said a line that was very poetic: “A wonderful storyline that even Hollywood can’t write.” Broos himself also has a remarkable connection to Mexico. In the 1986 Mexico World Cup, when he was still a Belgian player, he faced Mexico in the first round of the group stage—and Belgium lost 1-2.

But is the possibility of revenge really high this time? To be honest, it’s really hard. South Africa’s attack currently relies far too much on Foster alone. Foster plays for Burnley. Although he has good physical battles, going up against Mexico’s entire experienced defensive line by himself is extremely difficult. Mexico’s goalkeeper Ochoa, center-backs Montes, and Basques are all seasoned veterans with many years of experience, and they will give Foster special attention.

South Africa’s only chance is to set up a five-back defensive “iron wall” and hold firm. Captain Williams will “turn on” like he did at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, making one must-save after another, and then Foster—when Mexico surges forward—will seize a counterattack opportunity to nick a goal. But this kind of “script” requires too many unlikely things to happen at the same time, and the odds are really low. The gap in quality is there for everyone to see, and for South Africa, getting points is very difficult.

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