The Impact of Referees on the World Cup Opening Day — Will VAR and Home Referee Bias Affect the Match?

Every World Cup, the refereeing standards are a hot topic of discussion. Especially in the opening match, when the host nation is playing, everyone will be watching for "home referee bias." In the Mexico vs. South Africa game, will the referee favor Mexico? I think there might be a little bit of that, but not too obvious. The referees at the World Cup are carefully selected by FIFA; they try to stay impartial, but under the pressure of over 80,000 Mexican fans, their decisions can inevitably be influenced.

Home referee bias usually manifests in two ways: one is the leniency in foul calls. The home team’s fouls might be called less harshly, while the away team’s fouls might be penalized more severely. The second is penalty kicks. If there’s a close body contact inside the penalty area, the referee might tend not to call a foul on the home team or might call a foul on the away team. South African players need to be especially cautious not to give Mexico a penalty opportunity.

The presence of VAR can reduce incorrect calls to some extent, but VAR can only intervene when there is a clear mistake. If the referee does not call a foul, VAR generally will not intervene proactively. Therefore, home referee bias still has some influence.

In the match between South Korea and the Czech Republic, since it was played on a neutral ground, the influence of home referee bias was absent. Which team wins depends entirely on their strength and performance on the day. This is actually good for predictions, as it reduces uncertainty.

I suggest everyone not to overthink the referee factor when making predictions. Historically, hosts have indeed gained some advantages in the opening match, but these advantages are not enough to outweigh the actual strength difference. Mexico’s victory will mainly depend on their ability, not on refereeing decisions.

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