By the end of 2025, Bitcoin had been trading in a range around $90,000 for nearly a month. KOLs across the board were repeatedly urging, “This is the last chance to get in before $100,000.” The chat groups were saturated with the anxiety of “If you don’t get in now, it’ll be too late.” On top of that, the Federal Reserve at the time canceled the $500 billion cap on standing repurchase agreements. The market generally interpreted it as “effectively easing,” and among people around me, the outlook was overwhelmingly bullish.

At the time, my strategy was aggressive: while building up my BTC spot holdings in batches at $90,000, I also opened 4x leveraged contracts to swing trade, aiming to scale up my position in the “bottom zone.” As a result, in mid-January the market turned sharply downward. It hit a low of $63,000 in February. After a brief rebound in March, it then reversed direction again. Through this rollercoaster of ups and downs, my positions were repeatedly worn down. In the end, across 4 accounts, my total loss was about 700,000 RMB, and my contract positions were almost wiped out—down to nearly zero.

During that period, I could hardly sleep at night. It wasn’t only because I lost money—though I was also heartbroken—but because I couldn’t figure it out: everyone was clearly bullish. There wasn’t anything like a fundamental, doomsday-level negative catalyst. So why did it turn out like this?

After a long time of reviewing everything, I reached a conclusion that even old-school traders already know: in any market, when “everyone is optimistic,” that is already the biggest negative signal. You think your judgment is independent, but it’s just part of the herd effect.

Since then, I completely rebuilt my trading system:

First, lower leverage. Contracts are limited to at most 3-5x, each trade’s position size is strictly controlled within 10% of total capital, and stop-loss orders must be placed in advance.

Second, standardize discipline. No matter whether you make a profit or take a loss, before every trade you must clearly write out the entry logic, stop-loss level, and take-profit level. Once it’s in the system, you don’t manually change it anymore. That old way of thinking—“it seems like it will rebound soon, so just wait a bit longer”—was completely eliminated.

Third, hedge with spot holdings. I learned to hold both spot and contract positions at the same time, using some directional hedging, which reduced overall risk significantly.

Even though I lost money in that trade, I now believe that what I learned is far more valuable than what I managed to win back. Trading isn’t about who can predict best—it’s about who can stay in the game the longest. I hope my experience can give some insight to friends who are just entering the market. Risk control is always the top priority.

Currently, BTC is ranging between $62,000 and $63,000, and market sentiment is in the “extreme fear” zone. My personal strategy is: don’t bottom-fish, don’t chase shorts, control your position size, and wait for clear trend signals before taking action. #我的Gate交易时刻