South Africa’s “dark horse gene”—they specialize in making things happen away from home

South African football has a very interesting trait: they seem especially good at creating surprises on the road. At the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations, they knocked out Egypt at Egypt’s home ground; at the 2010 World Cup, they beat the formidable France in the final round of the group stage. At the 2026 World Cup, they will again play the opening match at Mexico’s home ground. Will this “away dragon” quality manifest itself once more?

From a psychological perspective, weaker teams have less pressure away from home. Losing is normal; winning makes them heroes. South African players have that kind of mindset. And as the host, Mexico carries the pressure of having to win; if they keep pressing without results, players can easily become impatient. Once they get impatient, mistakes follow—giving South Africa opportunities to counterattack.

In addition, South Africa’s head coach, Broos, is an experienced tactical master. He’s very good at setting up defensive strategies to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses. He’s surely studied Mexico’s attacking patterns over and over and has found ways to deal with them. For example, he may have the fullbacks tuck in to protect the central area, letting Mexico take long-range shots from the perimeter; or he may use foul tactics to disrupt Mexico’s attacking rhythm.

Of course, on paper, Mexico still has the advantage in strength. For South Africa to pull off an upset, they need luck and an exceptional performance. But I think at least they won’t be as defenseless as many people imagine. They will give it everything, making it very uncomfortable for Mexico to win. If Mexico scores early, it will be very difficult for South Africa; but if Mexico still can’t break the deadlock for a long time, after the 70th minute, South Africa really might steal a draw.

If you’re a prediction player who likes to take a gamble on an upset, you can place a small bet on South Africa to avoid defeat. The odds will be very high, and even if you bet only a little, the return could be quite substantial. But if you’re a conservative type, it’s better to just pick Mexico—after all, the probability of an upset is still relatively low.

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