💢💫💥 Half the Market Is Bleeding. The Bottom Is Close But Not Safe Yet.

More than 10 million Bitcoin, 50% of circulating supply, is now held at a loss after a 28% crash from $82,000 to below $60,000. Bitcoin also touched its 200 week moving average at $61,300, a level reached at every major bear market bottom in history. RSI just hit its lowest reading since November 2018. Fear and Greed dropped to 8. ETF outflows averaged 4,108 BTC per day for over a month straight. When this many signals fire at once the bottom is nearby. The word "nearby" is doing a lot of work right now.

Here is what history actually says. In 2011, 2018 and 2022 $BTC hit its cycle low within 31 days of supply in loss first crossing 50%, but every single one of those bottoms included one final deeper flush first. The next key level is $55,000, where the realized price sits and where Bitcoin has found long term support in every major crash including FTX. Grayscale says current levels are attractive for long term buyers but acknowledges this bottom is not as deep as post FTX. That gap matters before you size any position.

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