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#我的Gate交易时刻 Why did the market still fall despite a good card being played yesterday?
Yesterday exposed the first risk point of June, which is the U.S. CPI data.
U.S. May CPI year-over-year +4.2%, in line with expectations. From a month-over-month perspective, April was +0.6%, and May was +0.5%, showing a slowdown in the month-over-month growth rate.
Core CPI also increased by +2.9% year-over-year, meeting expectations. The 4.2% figure actually aligns with the market consensus forecast.
It can be said that a good card was played, and during the trading session, U.S. stocks once surged higher.
Although the 4.2% figure was a recent high for the U.S., because the market had already anticipated it, the news landing was not considered negative but rather the first negative factor to be exhausted.
The problem, however, came from the escalation of the U.S.-Iran situation last night, which caused U.S. stocks to close lower.
Iran announced it would continue a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. threatened to strike Iran’s civilian facilities.
This also led to a drop in gold prices, and Japanese and South Korean stock markets fell briefly in the morning.
This situation could further escalate; if the strait remains blocked, oil prices will stay high, and next month’s U.S. inflation data could rise further.
Even if the Fed doesn’t raise interest rates this month, ongoing inflation pressures might force them to consider rate hikes.
Anyway, at least the first step of the risk has been realized: CPI met expectations.
The next step depends on what Fed Chair Powell says on June 17.
Market also expects Powell’s statement to be that there will be no rate hikes or cuts.
But now, the market is more focused on whether the Fed might reduce its balance sheet.
Because Powell has consistently indicated that he would cut rates and reduce the balance sheet, but since rate cuts are unlikely now, what about balance sheet reduction?
Secondly, although there are no conditions for rate hikes or cuts this month, what about next?
As long as rate hikes or cuts don’t materialize, market concerns will persist, so Powell’s stance remains very important.
Because of this uncertainty, there has been intense volatility recently.
If Powell’s statement leans toward a more hawkish stance—no rate hikes—then the market could see a rebound.
Conversely, the current position suggests further downside.
When a clear opportunity arises, investors can consider entering on the right side.
From another perspective, this could also be a chance for reshuffling and portfolio adjustment.
Yesterday exposed the first risk point for June, which is the U.S. CPI data.
U.S. May CPI year-over-year +4.2%, in line with expectations.
From a month-over-month perspective, April was +0.6%, and May was +0.5%, indicating a slowdown in the month-over-month growth rate.
Core CPI also increased by +2.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations.
The 4.2% figure actually aligns with the market consensus forecast.
It can be said that a good card was played, and U.S. stocks temporarily surged during the trading session.
Although the 4.2% figure is a recent high for the U.S., because the market had already anticipated it, the news was not considered negative; rather, it was the first batch of negative news to be fully priced in.
The problem, however, came from the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict last night, which caused U.S. stocks to close lower.
Iran announced it would continue a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. threatened to strike Iran’s civilian facilities.
This also led to a drop in gold prices, and Japanese and South Korean stock markets fell briefly this morning.
This situation could further escalate; if the strait remains blocked, oil prices will stay high, and next month’s U.S. inflation data could rise further.
Even if the Fed doesn’t raise interest rates this month, ongoing inflation pressures might force them to consider rate hikes.
Anyway, the first step of the risk has been realized: CPI data met expectations.
The next step depends on what Fed Chair Powell says on June 17.
Market also expects Powell’s statement to be neutral—neither rate hikes nor cuts.
But now, the market is more focused on whether the Fed might reduce its balance sheet.
Because Powell has consistently indicated that rate cuts and balance sheet reductions are unlikely simultaneously, with rate cuts now off the table, what about balance sheet reduction?
Furthermore, although there are no conditions for rate hikes or cuts this month, what happens next?
As long as rate hikes or cuts don’t materialize, market concerns will persist, so Powell’s stance remains highly important.
Because of this uncertainty, there has been intense volatility recently.
If Powell adopts a more hawkish tone and rate hikes don’t happen, the market could see a rebound.
Conversely, the current position suggests further downside.
Once a clear opportunity arises, investors can consider entering on the right side.
From another perspective, this could also be seen as a reshuffling and rebalancing opportunity.