Bernstein: The World Cup will bring hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume to prediction markets, naming these three major platforms as winners

Wall Street investment bank Bernstein analysts released a new report stating that the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicks off today (11th), will become a historic watershed in the "prediction market" industry, potentially bringing in up to $10 billion in consumer transaction growth. The report estimates that the prediction market's annual trading volume in 2030 will reach $1 trillion, naming Coinbase, Robinhood, and DraftKings—large user base platforms—as the biggest winners.
(Background: Jupiter launches Solana-native prediction market Forecast, adopting "multi-market maker competition" to guarantee the best prices)
(Additional context: Prediction markets heavily betting on Bitcoin's further decline: 66% chance BTC drops below $55,000, shifting funds into stablecoins for risk hedging)

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• World Cup to drive hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, aiming for $1 trillion by 2030
• Three major distribution channels become biggest winners: DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase
• Polymarket loses market share, Kalshi rises to dominance

As the 2026 US-Mexico-Canada FIFA World Cup officially kicks off today (11th), this globally most-watched sporting event not only ignites fans' passion but also injects unprecedented explosive power into the emerging "prediction markets." Wall Street investment bank Bernstein's latest research report indicates that this World Cup, with 48 teams and 104 matches, will become the largest single trading catalyst in prediction market history, pushing the sector beyond political elections and into mainstream public awareness.

World Cup to drive hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, aiming for $1 trillion by 2030

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. Since the Web3 platform Polymarket sparked a craze during the 2024 US elections, prediction markets have gradually become key reference indicators for media and analysts. Bernstein analysts estimate that this World Cup, occurring during the traditional sports betting off-season (June to July), will bring in over $3 billion in incremental funds, boosting total consumer prediction market trading volume by $5 billion to $10 billion.

Driven by sports events and diverse incidents, Bernstein forecasts that the total annual trading volume in this industry will reach approximately $240 billion in 2026. Looking ahead, prediction markets are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 80%, reaching an astonishing $1 trillion annually by 2030.

Three major distribution channels become biggest winners: DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase

Compared to pure Web3 prediction platforms, Bernstein believes that traditional giants with strong "distribution channels" and large user bases have a greater capacity to absorb traffic. The report highlights three major winners:

• DraftKings: Seen as the clearest winner, its prediction products are legal in California, Texas, and Florida (covering 52% of the Hispanic population in the US). Through its partnership with Telemundo, it is expected to add about 650k funded prediction accounts during the World Cup, reaching 2 million by year's end.
• Robinhood: With about 13 million monthly active users, the company launched a joint CFTC-compliant settlement platform "Rothera" with Susquehanna on the World Cup opening day to capture market share with lower fees. As of May this year, its prediction market has processed about 16 billion contracts, with annualized revenue expected to surge to $586 million by year-end.
• Coinbase: With approximately 9 million monthly active users and the fastest growth, Coinbase has deep alliances with compliant platform Kalshi. Just two months after launching its prediction section (March this year), its annualized revenue broke through $100 million. This "Everything exchange" strategy is successfully attracting non-crypto-native users and diversifying revenue streams.

Polymarket loses market share, Kalshi rises to dominance

Notably, the competitive landscape among pure-play prediction platforms has reshuffled. Recent data shows that as of May this year, the total monthly trading volume in prediction markets was about $31.2 billion (up 5% month-over-month). Among them, the compliant platform Kalshi led with a trading volume of $17.9 billion, capturing about 57% of the market share; meanwhile, former leader Polymarket's trading volume declined 14.8% to $7.1 billion.

Bernstein emphasizes at the end of the report that prediction markets are not entirely mutually exclusive with traditional sports betting but are complementary. Sports events serve as a "gateway" to attract the masses, but ultimately prediction markets will evolve into broader, comprehensive information trading hubs, accelerating the reshaping of digital age information pricing models.