This is the ratio of the NASDAQ deviating from the 200-week moving average over the past 10 years:

It can be seen that 60%~70% is a risk threshold, and it doesn't mean that the index cannot rise when the deviation reaches this level, but rather that once the market surpasses this threshold, the rate of risk increase will begin to exceed the rate of return growth.
2021 was an extreme anomaly, with massive liquidity pushing this ratio above 100%, but afterward, every time the market briefly exceeded this threshold, the probability of a 10%~20% pullback significantly increased;
Currently, more than half of the 10% correction has already been completed...