Bloomberg analyst McGlone warns: Bitcoin may shift from "leading gains" to "leading declines," and risk assets could continue to decline.

Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone Issues Warning: Bitcoin Has Significantly Led Risk Assets During Past Bull Cycles, Now That "Leading" Relationship May Be Reversing. He Straightforwardly States that Bitcoin Previously "Drove Risk Assets Higher," but Now "May Also Drive Them Lower," and Based on a Comparison Chart with the S&P 500 on the Same Scale, He Predicts That Overall Beta Assets Might Enter a Down Year in 2026. Reported by Dongqu Dongqu.
(Background: U.S. May Inflation Surges Past 4%! Bitcoin and Gold Both Decline, Can the Federal Reserve Cut Rates Again in the Second Half of the Year?)
(Additional Context: Bitcoin Falls Into Deep Valuation in Bear Market, Fear Index Only 9, Toughest Moments Before June FOMC May Be Coming)

Key Highlights

• McGlone Warns Bitcoin Shifting from "Leading" to "Laggard," 2026 Beta Assets May Enter a Down Year
• S&P 500 Has Only Declined in 2018 and 2022 Since 2009, Both Coinciding with Bitcoin Bear Cycles and U.S. Midterm Elections
• Bitcoin and Gold Have Retraced About 50% from 2025 Highs (Around $126k), Showing Mean Reversion

Bitcoin has always been regarded as an amplifier of risk appetite, leading the stock market during rallies. Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone’s latest post warns that this amplifier may now be operating in the opposite direction. He straightforwardly states that Bitcoin, which previously "driven risk assets upward," may now "drive them downward."

Plunging Bitcoin Led the Way Up for Risk Assets

Bitcoin led risk assets on the way up and may lead them back down. My graphic featuring the crypto on the same scale as the S&P 500 (times 10) indicates a down year for beta in 2026. The only annual declines for the S&P 500 total… pic.twitter.com/gh1w3Uk8FQ

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) June 11, 2026

McGlone’s judgment is based on a comparison chart: placing Bitcoin and the S&P 500 on the same scale (Bitcoin amplified 10 times), it shows that overall beta assets—those that fluctuate with the market—may enter a down year in 2026.

Bitcoin was once the leading driver of rallies; McGlone suggests that now Bitcoin might be pulling everyone downward.

S&P Only Declines in "Bitcoin Bear Market Years"

McGlone references data showing that since 2009, the S&P 500’s annual total return has only declined in 2018 and 2022. Both of these years coincided with Bitcoin’s bear cycles and U.S. midterm election cycles.

Coincidentally, 2026 is also a midterm election year.

McGlone believes that this time, the difference lies in the mounting structural pressures.

First, inflation has re-emerged as a key political issue. Second, stock market volatility has remained low for a long time, seemingly calm on the surface; but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil continue to rise. This combination of "low-volatility stocks" and "high-risk commodities" is quite rare historically.

He adds that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion" (prices moving toward long-term averages), which could indicate that the entire risk asset cycle is entering a phase of re-pricing. Looking at the numbers, Bitcoin and gold have already retraced about 50% from their 2025 highs (around $126k), and the U.S. Treasury bond total return index may be gradually forming a cyclical bottom from its low levels since 1983.

The Real Signal Has Not Yet Appeared

However, McGlone also admits that the market currently lacks a key confirmation signal: the ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP, which has been near its highest levels since 1928, is beginning to decline.

This ratio measures the overall stock market value relative to the size of the economy (similar to the Buffett Indicator). McGlone believes that once this indicator starts turning downward, it could signal a broader risk asset cycle entering a structural correction.

This is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Mike McGlone? What does he think about the 2026 market?

Mike McGlone is Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief Commodity Strategist. He warns that Bitcoin is shifting from "leading" to "lagging," and believes that overall beta risk assets may enter a down year in 2026, highlighting the S&P and GDP ratio as a key confirmation signal.

Why would Bitcoin’s decline influence the U.S. stock market?

McGlone points out that Bitcoin is a leading indicator of risk appetite; it has historically led rallies and may now lead declines. He notes that since 2009, the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both coinciding with Bitcoin bear cycles and U.S. midterm election periods.