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Life moves too fast—before we know it, the 2026 World Cup opens tomorrow. Which teams will become dark horses is what everyone is most concerned about. As a pseudo football fan, Xiao Caishen also looked up some information. Based on reaching the quarterfinals as the dividing line, here’s a blind guess that the following 8 teams may become this year’s dark horses:
1. Norway
Core advantage: The top-tier attacking combination of Haaland + Ødegaard, a perfect 8 wins in qualifiers (including two wins against Italy), with the whole squad in their golden years (average age 26.4).
Risk points: Not having participated in 28 years has resulted in a lack of big-tournament experience; the group includes France (Group I).
2. Japan
Tactical maturity: A precise system built with 20+ players from European leagues, with proficient switches between high pressing and ball control, and over the past two years, they have beaten multiple traditional powerhouses.
Hidden concerns: Tomiyasu Mi? (Kaoru Mitoma) is unavailable due to injury, weakening their ability to break through; physical duels are still a hard weakness.
3. Ecuador
Defensive wall: In World Cup qualifiers, they conceded only 5 goals in 18 matches, with a European-level back line of Caicedo + Pacho.
Upper-limit constraint: Their attack relies on veteran Valencia; against strong teams, it’s difficult to break deadlocks.
4. United States
Home advantage: A younger squad (led by Pulisic and Reyna) suited to modern high-pressure tactics; in warm-up matches, they have beaten England and France.
Key to transformation: Possession rate increased to 58%, and the efficiency of transitions between attack and defense has improved significantly.
5. Morocco
Experience inheritance: Keeping the 2022 fourth-place lineup, with extremely strong mental toughness, and they are especially good at counter-attacks.
Challenge: After a change of coach, team cohesion is still in question; the group stage will require them to face Brazil directly (Group C).
6. Czech Republic
Group A troublemaker: The “double towers” of Hï? (Hick) + Šouček, with an aerial advantage, and their technical style suppresses South Korea’s pressing.
Fitness concern: The core players average 29 years old, which could leave them lacking energy after three consecutive matches.
7. Austria
Bundesliga troops: Ralf Rangnick’s meticulously structured system; Alaba’s ability to play multiple positions supports the midfield and back line.
Recovery signal: Returning to the World Cup after 28 years, they secured qualification by finishing above traditional strong teams in the qualifiers.
8. Colombia
Attack breakout point: The dual-core drive of J-Rod + Luis Díaz, with strong firepower in South American qualifiers.
Stability shortcomings: Clear defensive gaps, with significant fluctuations in form.