Market Analysis: Short-term Volatility Likely to Induce More Buying, Full-year Bearish Pattern Unchanged

Positive sentiment continues to ferment, with BTC maintaining its rebound trend. The current critical dividing line between bulls and bears is at $63,800. If effectively broken through, the short-term target could reach as high as $65,500. However, overall, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation, and the true direction will only be clear next week.

The main tone for the year remains bearish; do not mistake the current position as a major bottom. The possibility of a unilateral bull market starting here is very slim. The real trend reversal is expected to occur only in November, with a potential surge to the $90,000 level.

Regarding medium-term trends, the rebound peak in mid to late June was around $69k. After reaching this level, the market will restart its downward trend. The bottom forecast remains unchanged: BTC’s ultimate bottom is expected at $49,800, with ETH also expected to bottom at $4,125.

Short-term Operations and Risk Warnings

In the next two trading days, the market will mainly fluctuate sideways. Do not chase long positions; during rebounds to resistance levels, consider gradually building short positions.

Pay special attention to the volatility risk from two upcoming interest rate meetings next week: there is a possibility that the market will first rally to around $63,800 to liquidate short positions and create a trap to induce buying, then after the meetings, a strong downward move could begin. After completing the decline, a rebound to around $69,000 may occur, completing this round of medium-term rebound.