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Dongwu Securities: Expecting approximately 35% growth in global lithium battery demand by 2026, optimistic about the copper foil sector with both volume and profit rising.
On the supply side, the downward cycle of lithium battery copper foil processing fees has lasted for 4 years, with manufacturers' expansion willingness remaining low. In 2026, the effective global lithium battery copper foil capacity is 1.75 million tons, with only 210k tons added; in 2027, capacity reaches 1.98 million tons, with an additional 230k tons.
Capacity utilization rate was 93% in 2026 and will rise to 100% in 2027, with the supply and demand pattern continuing to tighten.
On the profit side, since the beginning of the year, processing fees for second-tier clients have increased by 1,500-2,000 yuan/ton, with profit per ton reaching 2,000-3k yuan.
Considering a 10k-ton CAPEX investment of 400-500 million yuan, manufacturers' target profit per ton is reasonably set at 8k yuan, still negotiating with downstream clients.
It is expected that the profit per ton could rise to 6,000-8k yuan in 2027.
The copper foil sector is expected to see both volume and profit growth, and an increase in holdings of copper foil stocks is recommended. (First Financial)