$XAU Don't be fooled by the rebound! Whales are dumping 140M wildly, is XAU heading to 3800 next?

Market rebounds are often the graveyard for the greedy.

The one-hour rebound of XAU is definitely not a reversal, but a typical "dead cat bounce." As an analyst, I see through the main force's trick of using rebounds to lure more traders.

Technically, the price bottomed at 4025 and rebounded to 4088, which is just a correction of the bearish trend. The real danger zone is on the liquidation map: above 4100-4300, there are over $200 million in short liquidation walls. The main force only needs to gently pull to trigger stop-losses above, completing a "point-blank explosion" on retail traders.

Smart money data shows that the average cost of long positions is as high as 4274, with everyone deeply trapped and nearly 8 million in unrealized losses; meanwhile, 90% of the short positions are profitable. The main force will never easily rescue these high-position short sellers; they are likely to use the rally to clear out shorts and then start the second round of dumping.

Trading strategy

Short positions: around 4130-4150;
Long positions: around 4070-4100;

Retail traders wanting to catch the bottom, open your eyes wide—main force is sharpening their knives above 4100.